Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs and his centrist United List head into the October 3 parliamentary election leading opinion polls, facing intense political pressure shaped by regional security concerns, economic cost-of-living issues, and monitoring by state security services.
Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs and the United List Campaign Surge
The centrist United List enters the parliamentary contest following a dramatic shift in voter preferences earlier this year. Incumbent Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs assumed office in May, stepping into a role that brought a series of previous coalition crises to an end. Backbencher Kulbergs, a former racing driver with a hawkish stance toward Russia and a staunch supporter of Ukraine, saw his popularity soar after taking the helm.
Polling conducted by SKDS and published by LSM places the United List in the lead with 14.4% support. Political analysts note that the Prime Minister successfully distanced himself from predecessors’ missteps while adopting the effective-governance message previously used by populist opponents. Despite leading the polls, the centrist grouping is unlikely to secure an outright majority, meaning any path forward requires stitching together a workable coalition in a fragmented parliament.
Security Realities and Border Pressures on the Campaign Trail
While socio-economic debates over the near-bankrupt national carrier airBaltic and delays in the Rail Baltica project dominated public discourse, regional security remained an underlying backdrop. Latvia’s intelligence services and armed forces pointed to intensified hostile activities by Russia and Belarus, encompassing migration pressure, disinformation campaigns, sabotage, and airspace violations.
Border figures underline the persistent friction: approximately 11,500 attempts to cross illegally from Belarus were thwarted since the beginning of 2026, tracking close to the 12,000 attempts recorded throughout 2025. In response to incursions by unmanned aerial systems, NATO deployed German Eurofighter jets to Lielvārde Air Base for the election period.
Meanwhile, security services monitored the information space to prevent unlawful foreign influence.
Voter Sentiment Among the Russian-Speaking Minority
Questions of identity and loyalty have resurfaced for Latvia’s sizeable Russian-speaking minority, particularly in eastern regions near the border. In Rezekne, local residents rejected rhetoric from Moscow mirroring justifications used for the war in Ukraine. Local resident Igors Nazarovs voiced a common sentiment during a harvest festival stop: We do not need help from Russia here. We can solve our problems ourselves,
he told AFP reporters.
In Daugavpils, where approximately 90% of the 80,000 residents are Russian-speaking, attitudes toward identity shifted noticeably following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Today, I clearly identify with Latvia and with this country, in no way with Russia.
Inna Plavoka, editor-in-chief of Tchaika
Affection for Soviet history persists primarily among older demographics, symbolized by portraits of Lenin and Stalin displayed at the Latvian Russian Community association office by Harmony candidate Aleksei Vassiliev.
Coalition Mathematics and the Five-Percent Threshold
As voters prepare to cast ballots, political scientist Filips Rajevskis emphasized that the fate of the next coalition will be decided by parties hovering near the five-percent electoral threshold. The SKDS poll results revealed notable shifts: the Progressives fell by 2.6 percentage points to 6.2%, and Sovereign Power/Young Latvians dropped 2.4 points to 9.4%. Conversely, the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) gained 2 percentage points, while the National Alliance rose 1.1 points to 5.6%.
| Political Party / Grouping | Polling Support (%) | Political Stance & Background |
|---|---|---|
| United List | 14.4% | Centrist, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs |
| Sovereign Power & Young Latvians | 9.4% | Centre-left, appeals to ethnic Russian minority |
| Latvia First | 9.2% | Populist, led by tycoon Ainārs Šlesers |
| Progressives | 6.2% | Left-leaning, socially progressive |
| National Alliance | 5.6% | Nationalist, hardline stance on security |
| Greens and Farmers’ Union | 4.8% | Conservative coalition group |
| New Unity | 4.3% | Centre-right, former governing party |
With roughly one-third of polled voters indicating they remain undecided or do not intend to vote, voter turnout on Saturday will dictate how many political forces successfully clear the parliamentary hurdle and how many wasted ballots amplify the seat shares of surviving parties.