2024-09-07 05:12:18
Islamabad: Pakistan is going to organize the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit on 15-16 October. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also been invited as a member country for this. However, PM Modi is unlikely to visit Pakistan. There is no hope of improvement in relations between India and Pakistan due to this. On August 30, the Indian Foreign Ministry confirmed Pakistan’s invitation, but did not say whether it would accept it or not. India has been saying categorically that cross-border terrorism and dialogue cannot happen together. Just a few days ago, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar had said that the phase of dialogue with Pakistan is now over.
Maliha Lodhi blamed India
Reacting to India’s stance, senior Pakistani diplomat Maleeha Lodhi told This Week in Asia in an interview that New Delhi’s lukewarm response indicated that Modi would not visit. However, she stressed that there was a need for engagement between the two nuclear-armed nations but India was yet to take a decision on resuming informal talks with Pakistan without discussing Kashmir. “So the current situation will continue without war, without peace, but the risk of escalation at any time will remain,” she said. Established in Shanghai in 2001, the SCO includes Russia, China, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Iran as member countries.
Why is there tension between India and Pakistan?
The reason for the dispute between India and Pakistan is the Kashmir issue. After gaining independence in 1947, Pakistan tried to illegally occupy Kashmir. When India retaliated, it fled to the United Nations and got a ceasefire with the help of its master America and Pakistan. This dispute that has been going on since then has not been resolved till date. Pakistan insists on exercising the rights of self-determination under the United Nations resolutions in Jammu and Kashmir, although it forgets the illegally occupied Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan. Due to these disputes, there have been wars between India and Pakistan several times. When India revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, the relationship worsened further. Pakistan alleges that this decision of India violates the United Nations resolution.
India’s tough stand on Pakistan
In May 2023, then Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari attended an SCO summit in India. Subsequently in March, Pakistan’s new Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar hinted at resuming trade relations with India. But, India has not yet shown a willingness to do so. Moreover, India’s stance on next year’s Champions Trophy cricket tournament in Pakistan is still uncertain. Last week, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said that “the era of uninterrupted dialogue with Pakistan is over.” He emphasized that India is not “passive” and will “react to events, whether they are in a positive or negative direction.”
Terrorism and dialogue don’t go together
Speaking to the South China Morning Post, former Indian diplomat Anil Trigunayat said that “cross-border terrorism” is the fundamental red line in India-Pakistan bilateral relations. “Apart from the SCO, the fact remains that there has been no credible and visible change in terms of Pakistan’s support to cross-border terrorism,” Trigunayat said.
‘Talks possible if Pakistan improves’
However, India’s former ambassador to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria interpreted Jaishankar’s statement differently, stressing that it is Pakistan’s responsibility to take relations between the two countries in the right direction. “Not being passive means that if there is a positive step or gesture from Pakistan, then as far as India is concerned, the relationship will move in a positive direction. I see it as a flexible position,” Bisaria said. The former diplomat also said that the era of uninterrupted dialogue with Pakistan is over long ago, adding that “this is not a policy but a statement of fact.”
Hamid Mir hopes to become like the ‘European Union’
However, senior Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir is optimistic about better relations in the future and believes that New Delhi and Islamabad will eventually soften their borders and resolve their problems through dialogue. “Mark my words, after 10-15 years our borders in the region including Jammu and Kashmir will be very soft and after 30-40 years our borders in South Asia will be EU (European) style,” Mir said. Mir also said that India should send representatives to the SCO. “I know the Pakistani government has invited Modi under some diplomatic obligation. They don’t want Modi to come to Pakistan, but ultimately both India and Pakistan will have to resolve their problems through dialogue,” he said.
Shahbaz attended the SCO Summit virtually in 2023
In 2023, when India hosted the SCO leaders’ summit, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif participated virtually. Bisaria said that due to the recent rise in terrorism in Jammu, India cannot take any big step at this time, but there may be a retaliatory action from India. He said, “A positive moment in which there is no terrorism for a long time, then there can be a positive response from India. This [भारत की ओर से] There is some kind of display or indication of flexibility. The door is not completely closed, but positive and negative signals have been given to Pakistan.” Bisaria believes India will be very cautious in showing any flexibility with Pakistan until the elections in Jammu and Kashmir are over on October 4. “India wants the elections to proceed in an incident-free manner without any major terrorist incident,” he said.
Will SCO also be affected like SAARC?
Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute, said the impact of the deterioration in relations between India and Pakistan on the SCO cannot be underestimated. He said it has rendered the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) redundant. Its members Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have not held a meeting in the last decade. Kugelman said, “I don’t think it is right to compare the SCO to SAARC. The SCO is dominated by Russia and China and both India and Pakistan are new members. This is an organization that includes many countries from Central Asia and it will grow even further.”
Why is SAARC on the verge of ending?
In 2015, then Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Russia, following which the two governments issued a joint statement. Modi accepted Pakistan’s invitation to the 2016 SAARC summit, but India boycotted the summit and was subsequently boycotted by other countries after a terrorist attack on an Indian military base in Jammu and Kashmir killed 19 Indian soldiers, leading to it being postponed indefinitely. Kugelman argues that India’s influence in SAARC is greater than its influence in the SCO, mainly because SAARC is a South Asian organisation.