(Warsaw,2026-01-05 15:25:00) – Poland may experience temperatures as low as -30 degrees Celsius later this month,according to long-term forecasts,though a warming trend is expected to begin after January 19.
Long-range weather models predict a potential deep freeze for Poland, followed by a shift towards milder temperatures and above-average conditions in February and March.
- Temperatures in Poland could drop to -30°C in the latter half of January.
- Warming is forecast to begin after January 19, with average temperatures rising to between -2 and 1°C.
- February and March are expected to be warmer than average, with rainfall near normal levels.
- Precipitation is likely to fall as rain rather than snow due to the anticipated temperature anomaly.
Current Forecast
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Piotr Szuster from the IMWM-PIB Meteorological Modeling Center told Gazeta.pl that temperatures will remain quite low in the coming week, perhaps dropping to -16 or -17 degrees Celsius at night in low-lying areas. Looking further ahead, the ECMWF model suggests temperatures could reach -30 degrees Celsius at the end of the second decade of January, though this is inconsistent with the GFS model, which predicts warmer weather.
When Will Warming Arrive?
According to Szuster, warming is expected after January 19, which will change the average temperature value. From that point forward, the minimum average temperature is forecast to be between -2 and 1 degree Celsius. This will result in a positive anomaly, ranging from 1.6 to 3.5 degrees above the long-term average, and is expected to persist into early February. Precipitation levels are expected to be approximately normal, between 9 and 12 mm, Szuster said.
Warm February and March
Climate models indicate that February will be warm, with an anomaly of about 2 degrees Celsius above average. March is also expected to be warm, with rainfall levels slightly above or within normal limits. Though, Szuster cautioned that long-range forecasts have limited verifiability and are subject to change.
Snowfall Prospects
Forecasting snowfall in Poland in the coming months is currently difficult, szuster emphasized, as it depends on numerous factors.”precipitation is expected to remain normal. Considering that the forecast temperature anomaly is quite high,I would tend to think precipitation will be in liquid form,not solid,” he said.
What This Means for You
The potential for extremely cold temperatures in mid-to-late January requires preparation,particularly for vulnerable populations. Residents should ensure adequate heating, appropriate winter clothing, and be aware of the risks associated with prolonged exposure to cold. While a warming trend is expected to follow, the forecast for warmer-than-average conditions in February and March suggests a milder winter potentially impacting seasonal activities and agricultural planning.
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