The global outlook for 2025 is presented as one of the most critical in decades due to the political violenceaccording to ACLED warns that protracted conflicts, such as in Syria, show few signs of resolution by 2025. En the nonprofit organization’s most recent report Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED).
With a 25 percent increase in incidents of violence policy in 2024 compared to the previous year, the document reveals the intensification of armed confrontations in several regions.
At the beginning of this year, Middle East appears as the epicenter of tensions. Israel, Gaza, West Bank and Lebanon experience constant episodes of violence, while prolonged conflicts in Syria, Pakistan and the Sahel They show no signs of resolution. Ukraine, in particular, is going through an alarming moment, with a 63 percent increase in monthly hostilities compared to 2023, marking an escalation in its war against Russia.
The report also warns of the rise of non-state armed groups that challenge government authority. Militias, cartels and paramilitary groups take advantage of power vacuums and negotiation processes to expand their territorial control, which intensified disputes in nations such as Colombia and Mexico.
You may be interested in: Violent start to 2025; They record 65 crimes in one day
In this context, Mexico occupies a worrying place. According to ACLED, The country recorded conflict levels classified as “Extreme” in 2024, ranking only behind Palestine, Myanmar and Syria. The violence not only affects the civilian population, but also reflects a growing fragmentation of armed groups.
During the last year, the lethality of the clashes between cartels increased by 18 percent, while these organizations diversified their activities towards extortion, human trafficking and fuel theft.
ED uses multiple sources and real-time updates to map political violence and forecast trends. However, it faces methodological challenges due to the dependence on available reports and the complexity of the conflicts.