For almost 20 years, Nancy Pelosi has been near the top of the list of enemies of the American right. Since the 2003 election, the Republicans have been portraying her as the “left of San Francisco”, that is, the opposite of what America should be.
● Where is the world economy going? 4 studies indicate the direction
● Behind the scenes of the cheating scandal that is stirring up the chess world: “It was only a matter of time like a ticking bomb”
Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t, and sometimes a little. The 82-year-old politician never panicked. She even spent many years in the opposition, in a country where there are no consolation prizes for losers. Unlike the Knesset, the winners in the American Congress get all the positions of power, from the Speaker on down. Opposition members do not hold hammers of any kind.
Well, that’s unfortunately inaccurate. One of them actually held a hammer on Friday morning. A 42-year-old man, David DePape, broke into the home of Nancy and Paul Pelosi in an affluent neighborhood of San Francisco. Ms. Pelosi was not at home. Neither were the secret agents protecting her. The 82-year-old Mr. Pelosi confronted the burglar alone, and tried Defend with a hammer. The burglar grabbed the hammer and hit him in the head.
Paul managed to call the police, before being rushed to the hospital, and having his brain operated on. The officers heard the burglar call out, “Where’s Nancy, where’s Nancy.” She was in Washington, on the other side of the continent. According to the police, the burglar intended to hold the husband hostage until his wife returned.
Conspiracy and anti-Semitism
At the time of this writing, it was not clear what DePappi wanted from Ms. Pelosi, or what he intended to do with her. Most likely, he didn’t mean to ask how she was. It is likely that this was an assassination attempt on her life, not a repeat of the famous break into the bedroom of the Queen of Great Britain, which was shown at the time in the Netflix series “The Crown”. The British intruder (in 1982) just wanted to tell the queen “what is really” happening in her country. The burglar in San Francisco was early to announce his intentions in a series of frantic Facebook posts. He belongs to the delusional right, the one addicted to peppered conspiracy theories, with anti-Semitic spices.
At the age of 82, after two terms as Speaker of the House of Representatives (four years each), Nancy Pelosi is one of the most recognizable figures in American politics. She became the leader of her faction in the House of Representatives in 2003, in the midst of a long opposition. She led the party to eight elections (the House of Representatives is up for election once every two years). She lost four of them. In one, 12 years ago, she suffered a terrible and terrible defeat. The Democrats then dropped from 256 seats to 193 (the minimum required for an absolute majority is 218). The upcoming elections, on November 7, could be a replay of 2010.
The physics of politics
An incumbent president’s party always loses seats in midterm elections. Midterm elections give voters an opportunity to express frustration. Besides, opposition supporters tend to vote in much larger numbers than the president’s supporters. that’s how it is. It almost goes against the laws of physics.
This time the Democrats initially have a tiny majority. Only five net seats need to go to the Republicans, for them to take control of the House of Representatives, and uproot the legislative capacity of the Biden administration. But the surveys and assessments of the last few days hint at a much more dramatic result. In political parlance, the USA is about to be hit by a “red wave” (red for some reason indicates the Republican Party, even though it is on the right. Blue indicates the Democrats). The Democrats are deeply anxious. There are signs that they may lose even seats that are considered “safe “. Veteran Democratic congressmen are fighting for their political lives.
But early Friday morning, the phrase “fighting for their lives” took on a literal meaning. The husband of the Speaker of the House of Representatives fought for his physical life. She herself was the target. The question “Where is Nancy” evoked an immediate association to January 6, 2021, the day when thugs from Donald Trump’s supporters broke into the House of Congress, fought with police officers, occupied offices, positioned themselves in the plenums of the House of Representatives and the Senate, and “looked for Nancy.” They were also looking for Vice President Mike Pence, who refused to comply with the boss’s order and invalidate the results of the presidential election (he and Pelosi chaired the congressional session called to approve the results. This is part of the normal constitutional procedure).
Don’t worry too much
The Wall Street Journal, whose editorials are famous for their hostility to the Democratic Party, wrote on Saturday that the assassination attempt on the life of Paul Pelosi is “another sickening example of the political violence in our incredibly disturbed culture.” The paper gave a series of “sickening examples”, but for some reason they all involved violence against Republicans. The attack of the incited mob on the House of Congress was not found worthy of mention.
But the last few days have summoned a series of reminders of political violence from the right. One of the January 6 Congress attackers was sentenced last week to more than seven years in prison. Three extreme right-wing men were convicted of trying to kidnap the Democratic governor of the state of Michigan, in the Midwest of the USA.
The public opinion polls were not enough to examine the effect of the assassination attempt on the voters. So far, the polls have shown that the three issues that preoccupy voters the most are inflation, increasing urban crime and the lax enforcement of immigration laws on the Mexican border that allows the entry of hundreds of illegals. Although a survey from the beginning of the month showed that 71% of voters believe that there is a danger lurking for democracy, only 7% give a central place to this danger in their decision for whom to vote. Indeed, an amazing state of affairs.
President Biden tried to tie the knot, in a speech he gave on Friday in the state of Pennsylvania, which is one of the main battlegrounds in next week’s elections. “How can we imagine,” he asked, “that one party will talk about stealing elections, about falsifying Corona… and it won’t affect people who may be unbalanced?… That it won’t change the political climate? Enough and enough!”
Democrats in Shen-Vain
In truth, a massive change of direction is not necessary to save the Democrats from a crushing defeat. In many constituencies in the House of Representatives and in some states that elect senators, the polls show tiny differences. In midterm elections, small differences usually work in favor of the opposition, hence the assumption that the Republicans will sweep the jackpot. Is it possible that the attack on Pelosi’s house will reduce the difference in the advantage of the Republicans, or even erase them, at least here and there?
If so, maybe the Democrats will be able to come out on top. I mean, the assumption is that they are prone to losing in the House of Representatives, but losing by a small margin might make it easier for them to come back and conquer the House of Representatives in 2024. In the Senate, on the other hand, they have some chance of maintaining their minimum majority (50 out of 100, plus the decisive vote of the vice president). Even in the Senate, a small, even tiny, shift in votes could tip the scales in favor of the Democrats. Maybe.
If the Democrats lose both houses of Congress, it will be easy to outline the scenario: the next two years will return the USA to the days of political stagnation, which characterized it whenever the executive branch and the legislative branch were in the hands of two rival parties. A tie will remain in Washington. Laws will not be passed, budgets will not be approved , time and time again the government will be on the verge of shutting down because the opposition will refuse to raise the debt ceiling, and who knows what will happen to Ukraine (drooling in Moscow). This is very bad news for those who are interested in America’s political well-being and wish for its leadership.