Poll by Globes: Which Issue is the Most Critical in the Justice System?

by time news

The “Globes Poll” survey is a significant event in its breadth and statistical accuracy, consisting of a representative sample of 2,000 individuals in Israel. Unlike other surveys, it was conducted through a mix of internet and phone questionnaires to a broad range of people who come from different backgrounds and worldviews. The survey included 25 questions on various topics, including legal reform and life in Israel. The “Shilov” institute was chosen to conduct the survey due to its reputation for impartiality and nonpartisan work. 43% of respondents are opposed to legal reform, with only 17% in full support. The survey showed that the size of the survey is crucial for statistical validity and reliable results. 81% of respondents did not participate in demonstrations against legal reform, with 71% declaring that a compromise solution may stop them from demonstrating. The survey indicates that political identity has an effect on survey results, but the traditional division of political blocs is breaking in certain areas. The most significant legal problem according to the majority of the public is legal procrastination.


How did we test and why?

The Globes survey before you is an unprecedented event in its scope, depth and statistical validity, that’s why we decided to call it the “Globes Poll”.

Surveys shown in the media from time to time are usually conducted among a sample that includes only about 500 respondents. In order to expand and deepen the canvas, we conducted a huge survey that included 4 times as many participants – that is, 2,000 people who are a representative sample of the population in Israel. Increasing the number of participants in the survey significantly increased its reliability and therefore the sampling error in it is only +/- 2.2%. Also, unlike other surveys and due to the large number of participants, part of the questionnaire was carried out through an internet questionnaire and part through phone calls. The answers were presented to the respondents in a random manner.

In recent weeks, we have sharpened our desire and need to learn the public’s positions on the complex issues at hand, to break down the state of the country into its factors and through a complex and broad questionnaire to enable all parties to understand in depth the various points of view, both regarding the legal reform and regarding life together in the State of Israel. To this end, we formulated 25 questions concerning the controversies that divide Israeli society today, as well as questions of religion and state or concepts that we all often use these days (for example, democracy and dictatorship). In formulating the questions, we were helped by a wide range of people coming from different tribes and worldviews: secular and religious, Jews and Arabs, leftists and rightists.

We will publish the results of the survey in the next ten days gradually. The “Shilov” institute was chosen to conduct the survey, among other reasons, due to the fact that it does not conduct mandate surveys and does not work for politicians. We made sure of this out of a desire to increase public trust in this survey as well and to neutralize claims of political bias. All the surveys we conduct at Globes also include Arab society.

The survey of the “Shilov” research institute, headed by Israel Olynyk, was conducted among 2001 men and women, aged 18 and over, in a national, random and representative sample of residents of the State of Israel, as part of a dedicated internet and telephone survey, using a computerized survey system, on the dates 3/23-21 /3/23. The internet survey was done from the iPanel panel of internet surfers.

43% of the respondents claimed that they do not support the legal reform at all. This, compared to 42% who support the reform or some of its sections. At the same time, only 17% of the respondents answered that they support all the articles of the reform. Naturally, among right-wing voters, the rates of absolute opposition to the reform are much lower (21%) compared to 64% in the center and 71% in the left. At the same time, only 30% of those who define themselves as right-wing voters support each and every one of the sections of the reform.

● Globes poll following the national situation

This exact question was asked in a previous survey that we published on January 27 (of the “Shilov” research institute). So 43% of the respondents claimed that they did not support the reform at all (same rate), 20% replied that they supported some of the sections and 19% replied that they supported all of the sections. That is, almost two months later, most of the public did not change their original position regarding the reform at all.

81% did not go out to demonstrate against the legal reform while 19% went out to demonstrate. In the division between right and left, this is 10% of right-wing voters and 30% of left- and center-right voters. Among those who oppose the reform, 35% went out to demonstrate at least once.

71% stated that accepting some sort of compromise outline would make them stop demonstrating. What outline? In this context, the fact that the president who presented a compromise outline is seen as the least relevant at this stage with only 15% of the votes stands out. 37% of the respondents indicated that only a complete withdrawal from the reform would make them stop demonstrating. Among respondents who classify themselves as “left” the rate rose to 48%. It should be noted that more than one answer could be chosen and that the question was directed only to those who went out to demonstrate at least once.

The reviewer’s word

As part of our desire in the Globes system to increase the public’s trust in the survey and to increase the transparency regarding the way it is prepared, we asked Israel Olnik, founder, owner and president of the “Shilov” research institute, to tell about the behind the scenes of its editing.

Tell us about Shivlov company?
“I founded the Shilov company in 1976 and it is the oldest research company in the market today. The company mainly specializes in conducting surveys, with an emphasis on the business sector. We carry out between 600 and 800 research projects a year and carry out over 100,000 telephone interviews and 300 A thousand internet interviews a year. To this end, we have dozens of employees, including researchers from various disciplines: business administration, sociology, psychology, statistics, etc. I myself served as a marketing and research lecturer at higher education institutions.

“As mentioned, we work especially with the leading business companies in the economy but also with public and governmental bodies. As a decision, we do not work with any party.”

What can you tell us about the current survey?
“This is a rare survey in its scope – 2,000 subjects who are a representative sample of the Israeli population; surveys of this scope happen maybe once a year. Most of the surveys published in the media include only 500 people.”

Why does survey size matter at all?
“The size of the survey has an effect on several levels, but it mainly affects the statistical validity or what we call the ‘maximum sampling error’. In a survey of two thousand people, the maximum statistical error is only 2.2%, which is a low rate compared to standard surveys of 500 people – where the measurement error is 4.4% in each direction.

“This takes on even greater significance in the analysis of subgroups in the population. That is, a large sample allows us to make sure that we measure more people by age, with different religious characteristics, and the like. The fact that the subgroups are larger makes it possible to improve the statistical validity of the results.”

How do you make sure that different populations are properly sampled, for example Haredim and Arabs, and that there is adequate representation for the periphery?
“All surveys are managed closely with statistical software that controls the entire sampling procedure according to the CBS data, and allocates cells to different population groups according to their share in the general population: religiosity level, gender, income level and age.

“The Arab population, for example, is sampled separately in a questionnaire translated into Arabic, including through telephone conversations. In any case, it is important to note that we work according to the standards accepted in the market and according to international standards, for example that of Esomar, the international organization of research institutes. The iPanel internet questionnaire is also administered according to international standards.” .

What is the most striking thing in your eyes about the results?
“Without revealing the results of the survey, most of which will be published in the next few days, I can say that a person’s political identity has an effect, but we see that the classic division of blocs is breaking to a certain extent – meaning that the legal reform crosses the classic bloc division in certain places.”

Legal procrastination (29%) is the most serious problem of the legal system today, according to the majority of the public. This is a particularly interesting answer against the background of the fact that this issue does not receive a direct answer within the framework of the legal reform.

At the same time, this answer takes on a much greater significance when asking left and center voters. Among right-wing voters alone, the answer that received the most votes is different – 31% answered that the most serious problem of the judicial system is making decisions without authority, 24% claimed that it was procrastination, 19% settled on a picky enforcement answer and 15% answered the lack of diversity in senior positions.

20% of the public estimates that there will be no fratricidal war “under any circumstances”. This answer received greater significance among the supporters of the reform. At the same time, the majority of the public (46%) fear a fratricidal war, therefore whether they support the reform (16%) or whether they oppose it (30%), they believe that a compromise must be reached. Only 5% of the respondents think that the legislation should be continued in any case and only 10% of the opponents think that in such a scenario the protest should be continued in any case.

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