2023-04-28 16:51:38
The machine to elect the future president of Mexico in 2024 has already started. The popularity of the current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and the little or no force of the opposition seem to tilt the balance of the future of the country towards the continuity of what is known in presidential jargon as the Fourth Transformation (4T). In the race to succeed López Obrador in the candidacy of Morena, his party, two names stand out, Claudia Sheinbaum and Marcelo Ebrard.
Morena’s hegemony is so great that the contest to elect the future president will not take place on July 2, 2024, but before, in the fight for the candidacy of this party. Hence the importance of the existing surveys, which allow the electoral strategy of the contenders to be fine-tuned.
Morena’s weight in Mexican politics guarantees that her candidate ends up in the presidency
The vanguard He has had access to the first polls by Covarrubias y Asociados, which anticipate those that Morena will carry out in the coming weeks. Covarrubias y Asociados is one of the most traditional survey companies in Mexico. In the 2006 presidential elections, he worked for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, in a very closed electoral process that, for AMLO and his followers, ended in electoral fraud. It was AMLO’s first choice. There was a second and, finally, in the third, in 2012, it swept away.
Morena’s strength in Mexican politics is such that in the Covarrubias y Asociados survey, the party wins in all the scenarios proposed. The study was carried out between April 19 and 25, 2023 and the sample size was 1,500 people visited in person.
In the survey, Morena appears as the main preference of those interviewed, with 47% approval. Its closest competitor, the National Action Party (PAN), only has 13% support, followed by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) with a meager 11%. In the hypothesis of future political alliances, a candidacy from Morena, the Green Party and the Labor Party monopolize 52% of the preferences, with a resounding 52%. The alliance between the PAN, the PRI and the PRD would only obtain 24%.
If Morena’s presidential candidate were Claudia Sheinbaum (current head of government in Mexico City), the party would reach 57% of the vote. If the candidate were Marcelo Ebrard (Secretary of Foreign Relations of Mexico), the polls give him a voting intention of 55%. A third scenario posed by the polling company, the candidacy of Adán Augusto López (current Secretary of the Interior) would obtain 48% of the intention to vote. In all three cases, Morena surpasses her political opponents.
The figures corroborate the very high popularity of President López Obrador -80% approval at the end of his six-year term, something never seen in Mexico- and the dismantling of the opposition, in which its best positioned figure is a dead man! Indeed, many people prefer Luis Donaldo Colosio over any other opposition candidate, but not because of the work done by the young mayor of the city of Monterrey, but because of the memory of his father, assassinated in 1994 and still alive in the collective memory. , thanks above all to a Netflix series.
Also according to the Covarrubias y Asociados survey, President López Obrador obtains a rating of 8.05 on a scale from 1 to 10.
The polls indicate a clear advantage for Claudia Sheinbaum, and on the rise, as can be verified on the SDPNoticias.com portal, which updates an average of the polls carried out. Sheinbaum is a scientist with many years of militancy in leftist movements who took her first steps in politics in student protests when she was studying for a degree in Physics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM).
The contest is settled between Sheinbaum and Marcelo Ebrard, a well-known politician
Second place in all the polls is occupied by Marcelo Ebrard, a professional politician from a young age, trained in the PRI, where he held institutional positions, a party he left to become a member of the left. Although Ebrard is better known than Sheinbaum, she surpasses him in all attributes, especially in the question of who the citizen prefers for the Morena candidacy.
The Covarrubias y Asociados survey points to Claudia Sheinbaum as the favorite to represent Morena in the race for the presidency of Mexico by obtaining 30% of the votes. In second place Marcelo Ebrard is positioned with 20% of the preference, so those ten percentage points begin to weigh.
One of Claudia Sheinbaum’s main advisers is Barcelona-based political consultant Antonio Gutiérrez Rubí, who rose to fame in Mexico when another of his clients, leftist Gustavo Petro, won the Colombian presidency. The truth is that Sheinbaum’s competitors, both within Morena itself and in the opposition, are exploring consulting options in Catalonia, especially for social media strategy.
Ariadna Domingo, a 23-year-old girl specializing in Instagram, where she has 400,000 followers, is one of the most sought-after professionals in the sector. Domingo would have designed a method to try to stand out in the very complex and excessively competitive world of social networks. Asked if Mexican politicians have approached her, Domingo did not deny it but she preferred to keep the information confidential.
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