Polymarket launched an internal investigation after hundreds of newly created accounts placed well-timed, profitable bets on Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party just before polls closed in Israel. Blockchain analytics firms flagged the activity, while US senators raised broader questions about market protection.
Prediction markets face fresh scrutiny over trading integrity following suspicious activity surrounding Israel’s parliamentary election. Just before voting concluded on October 27, hundreds of accounts appeared on the blockchain-based platform Polymarket to wager heavily on the prime minister and his political allies.
The timing of the digital wallet creations immediately drew attention from platform monitors. More than 600 accounts were established on a single day without any prior trading history, directing their wagers toward outcomes favoring Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud.
Blockchain Ledger Reveals Election Day Wallet Surge
Because every transaction on the international platform is logged on a public blockchain ledger, analysts traced the influx of capital directly to election day. Prior to the close of voting, Polymarket traders had consistently favored opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot over Netanyahu, mirroring polling that showed flagging support for Netanyahu.
That consensus flipped instantly when Israeli television exit polls indicated that Likud had performed better than early reports suggested. Netanyahu’s probability of securing the premiership surged to 59% on the platform, while Eisenkot’s dropped sharply to 21%.
The sudden shift generated immediate payouts for the newly minted accounts. Several wallets quickly cashed out combined profits exceeding $100,000, while others maintained positions holding substantial unrealized gains.
Analytics Firms and Internal Investigators Review Suspicious Wallets
Data monitoring firms Polysights and Bubblemaps joined Polymarket’s internal investigative team in examining the trading patterns. Bubblemaps identified 101 accounts funded for the first time on election day before voting ended, noting that several had already closed their positions at a profit following the exit poll broadcasts.
One newly created account stands to reap roughly $180,000 in profits if both the Netanyahu and Likud positions fully pay out. Records show that specific account received a deposit of about $39,995 originating from Tron blockchain wallets previously flagged by explorers for malicious activity and interaction with sanctioned addresses.
Platform representatives acknowledged that separating insider trading from independent research or fortunate timing remains challenging in fast-moving markets. Amid the election review, Polymarket briefly halted trading on October 29 after users reported stolen funds, contacting law enforcement before resuming operations an hour later following the resolution of a compromised third-party issue.
US Senators and Global Regulators Question Market Safeguards
The Israeli market anomaly follows a series of prediction-market investigations involving confidential political and military information across multiple jurisdictions. Israeli authorities previously filed charges against a civilian and a military reservist accused of wagering on security operations against Iran using classified intelligence. In the United States, federal prosecutors charged soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with utilizing sensitive details about a military operation in Venezuela to secure over $400,000 in platform profits.
These persistent security gaps prompted US Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Senator John Curtis of Utah to dispatch a joint inquiry letter to Polymarket and its main competitor, Kalshi.
The identification of isolated instances of improper trading does not demonstrate that these markets are adequately protected.
Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis, US Senate, via Straitstimes
The lawmakers emphasized that the pattern points to vulnerabilities in how exchanges monitor election integrity.
Instead, it raises serious questions about how much similar activity may be going undetected.
Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis, US Senate, via Straitstimes
Investigators stressed that unusual trading profitability does not automatically prove the misuse of nonpublic information. Yet as independent analytics firms continue auditing the blockchain records, the episode deepens the regulatory debate over whether prediction platforms can effectively police sensitive political wagers before election results become public.