2023-05-16 20:50:21
The UN reviewed this Tuesday upwards its forecasts for the world economy and now expects growth of 2.3% for this year thanks to better prospects in the United States, Europe and China.
The organization improved his calculation by four tenths with respect to the one he had published in January, but its forecast for 2024 worsened by two tenthswhen you expect the world to grow by 2.5%.
The United Nations, in a report, attributes the 2023 review mainly to the resilience of household spending in the US, to improvements in the European Union (EU) due to consumption and the drop in gas prices, and to higher growth in China due to the lifting of restrictions imposed by covid-19.
As a positive element, the organization highlights above all the strength shown by the labor market in developed economies, with high employment rates in the United States and Europe and wage improvements in many places.
Meanwhile, he points out that precisely this situation is complicating the work of central banks to control inflationwhich continues to be very high in many countries and warns that more cooperation is needed to ensure that the strong monetary adjustment that is being seen does not sink the economies of developing countries.
Improvements and risks in the United States
The UN hopes that The US economy grows this year by 1.1% (7 tenths more than what was forecast in January), but also warns that “significant weaknesses” have become evident in recent months, for example with the recent banking crisis and the difficulties in controlling inflation.
By the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, the United Nations expects a contraction as a result of foreseeable corrections in the real estate market and in the demand for creditwhich should curb spending and investment.
In 2024, it expects the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by 1%, seven tenths less than before.
A Europe more resilient than expected
In the case of Europe, the report indicates that their economies “have proven to be more resilient than previously expected” and, therefore, the growth forecast for this year improves by 7 tenths, up to 0.9%.
“Although high energy prices, persistent inflation and aggressive monetary tightening have weighed heavily on economic growthmost countries have so far escaped a recession and the short-term outlook has improved,” the document said, which did not provide country-by-country data.
For 2024, the UN lowered its growth forecast in the EU by one tenth, to 1.5%.
In the case of United Kingdomthe UN is still waiting an economic contraction for this yearbut less than expected, only 0.1%, and a rebound of 1.1% next year.
One of the biggest changes with respect to the report that the United Nations had presented in January occurs with Russia, because while then it forecast a fall of 2.9%, athour expects it to be only 0.6%.
For its part, the Chinese economy, one of the great engines of world growth, will grow 5.3% this year (5 tenths more) and 4.5% next year (without changes) thanks to the recovery in consumption and of investments after the end of many of the emergency measures established during the pandemic.
No change in Latin America
In Latin America and the Caribbean, the UN maintains its growth forecast of 1.4% this year and revises by one tenth, to 2.4%, that of 2024, when considering that the slowdown of which he already warned in January and that particularly affects Argentina, Chile, Brazil and Colombia is confirmed.
Despite the fact that 2023 will be less bleak than the United Nations initially expected, the organization stresses that the world faces the prospect of a prolonged period of low growth due to the effects left by the pandemic, the growing impact of climate change and problems macroeconomic issues that remain unresolved.
This poses problems especially for regions such as Africa and Latin America, where it seems to be confirmed long-term stagnation and where economies are not being able to facilitate investment considered necessary for the future.
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