Which assembly? Who in Matignon and when? Which government? We take stock with constitutionalist Anne-Charlene Bézina.
Absolute majority, minority government, technocratic government… Constitutionalist Anne-Charlene Bézina, from the University of Rouen (West), outlines for AFP the possible scenarios after the second round of legislative elections in France. With one unknown: who will be the new prime minister and when will he take office?
Which assembly?
“Two things are certain. The National Assembly, as it will be drawn up on July 7, cannot under any circumstances be dissolved before June 9, 2025, even if we have a new presidential election. Furthermore, the country cannot get by without a self-government in the name of the principle of the continuity of the State.
Beyond that, several scenarios are possible. First, an absolute majority for the National Rally (at least 289 delegates). The situation has changed mathematically given the large number of people returning, but it is very difficult to know what proportion of voters will follow the “Republican Front” at the polling station.
Another option is the relative majority for RN: Comfortable (about 270 seats) Which could allow (its president) Jordan Bardella to seek support from Les Républicains (LR, right) and become prime minister without fear that his government would be overthrown by a motion of censure in the assembly.
Limited (around 250 seats)A scenario we recently experienced with Elisabeth Borne (Prime Minister of the Macronist relative majority from 2022 to early 2024). Small (around 220 seats) with an almost competitive legitimacy of the opposition that would remain in contact with the RN”.
Who in Matignon and when?
If his party is not very close to 289 deputies, he has given assurances that he will choose the vacant chair and will not go to Matignon for the first time under the Fifth Republic. Could he change his mind so as not to displease his voters, form a government, wait for the censure motion to possibly come into effect and thus show the voters that they have been stopped despite their wishes?
In the more likely scenario where he admits his refusal, the prime minister will have to look elsewhere. I have a hard time seeing how (current head of government) Gabriel Atal will be able to stay after the failure of the European elections and the poor result in the legislative elections. As Republican tradition dictates, he could present his resignation on the evening of July 7.
But Emmanuel Macron is not obliged to accept it immediately, especially given the time the Olympic period has passed. Almost a month passed between the resignation of Jean Castex and the arrival of Elisabeth Borne in 2022.
Coalition, technocratic government
“If Jordan Bardella refuses Matignon, there are two possibilities: a government of national unity that would bring together the Macronist camp, part of the New Popular Front and the Republican right.
This scenario seems complicated. This heterogeneous coalition, which would emerge without the LFI (the radical left, one of the main parties that make up the NFP but rejected by the centrist bloc and which opposes an alliance with the Macronist camp, editor’s note), would be poorly equipped to oppose a censure motion.
Again, it is difficult to see how such contradictory personalities as LR Olivier Marleux and ecologist Sandrine Rousseau would be able to agree even on a minimum programme.
The examples of coalitions among our European neighbors (Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Portugal, etc.) are illustrative: most legislative elections in these countries take place using proportional voting, which makes it possible to better define the will of the voters. We are in a completely different situation in France: A two-round majority vote that eliminates unanimity and does not promote acquiescence.
Another envisages the formation of a technocratic government that could be put in place until the next legislative elections.
Another hypothesis is the formation of a technocratic government to hold out until the next legislative elections, which the various political forces will not work to overthrow. The experts (economists, senior civil servants, diplomats, etc.) were led by a consensus personality in Matignon himself. The point is to reassure investors, financial markets and our partners.
Its scope of action would be limited to the strictest minimum: paying civil servants, allocating necessary resources to the administration, raising money so that France could finance itself….
In Italy, the ‘technical’ governments of Mario Monti (2011-2013) and Mario Draghi (2021-2022) were formed to try to reduce the critical level of Italian debt. Later, Giorgia Meloni came to power…”