Potential Tropical Storm Near Ogasawara Expected to Develop into Typhoon Within 12 Hours

2024/08/07 16:15 Weather News

As of 15:00 on August 7 (Wed), the Japan Meteorological Agency announced that the developing tropical depression near the Ogasawara Islands is “expected to develop into a typhoon within the next 12 hours.”

If a typhoon occurs, it will be called Typhoon No. 5.

▼ Tropical Depression 　August 7 (Wed) 15:00
　Center Position　　　Approximately 210 km south-southwest of Chichijima
　Movement　　　　　Almost stationary
　Central Pressure　　　998 hPa
　Maximum Wind Speed　　　15 m/s (near center)
　Maximum Gust Speed　23 m/s
» Radar Typhoon Mode
» Latest Typhoon and Tropical Depression Information

Caution for Heavy Rain, Thunder, and Gusts in Ogasawara

This tropical depression is likely to strengthen further and develop into a typhoon.

At this point, it is expected to move north-northeast from the Ogasawara Islands and travel northward over the Pacific Ocean. Significant development is not expected, and it is believed to move northward with strength not accompanied by a storm area.

From now until tomorrow, August 8 (Thu), careful attention is needed for strong rain, thunder, and gusts in the Ogasawara Islands. While significant effects on mainland Japan are not anticipated, there is a possibility of high waves along the Pacific coast, so please be careful of rip currents and other hazards during marine leisure activities.
» Radar Satellite Cloud Image Mode
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)

Reference: Numerical simulation results of the projected path calculated by meteorological agencies around the world

The thin lines in this diagram represent the simulation results of the paths calculated by weather agencies worldwide. These are derived from a method called ensemble forecasting (members), and they are included to visualize the considerable range in possible paths.

Upon comparing these members, there is a general tendency to move northwest; however, there is significant variation, ranging from paths that pass near Okinawa toward the East China Sea to those that move northward to the south of Honshu, indicating substantial variability in path predictions.

Not only the trajectory but also the timing and intensity predictions have considerable error. It is expected that the errors will shrink over time, so please pay attention to future information.

Probability of Entering the Typhoon’s Storm Area

The probability of entering the typhoon’s storm area within the next five days is as follows. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
　Amami Region　　　　　　3 %
　Okinawa Main Island Region
　　Northern and Central-Southern Parts of the Main Island　4 %
　　Kerama and Aguni Islands　3 %
　　Kume Island　　　　　　3 %
　Daito Islands Region　　　　　4 %
　Miyako Islands Region　　　　　4 %
　Yaeyama Region
　　Ishigaki Island Region　　　　4 %
　　Yonaguni Island Region　　　2 %

If the Typhoon Develops, It Will Be About Half a Month Since Last

Average Number of Typhoons per Year

If the next typhoon occurs, it will be since Typhoon No. 4, which developed on July 21, and will be referred to as Typhoon No. 5. It will be about half a month since the last typhoon.

Looking at the average value of typhoon occurrences, the average number of typhoons in August is 5.7, making it the time of year with the most typhoons occurring. This year, there is also a possibility of multiple typhoons developing south of Japan. As we head into the full typhoon season in autumn, please prepare for typhoon measures and heavy rain countermeasures.
» Latest Typhoon Information

Reference Materials