The real transit of power in Kazakhstan, which was believed to have taken place in 2019, is actually happening only now – after large-scale riots in Almaty and other cities of the republic. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emerged from the shadow of his predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev. He now acts without looking back at the national leader – the Leader of the Nation. Moreover, in fact, he announced an attack on the interests of his family members. What will come of this is not yet clear. But from the events in Kazakhstan, one can draw a general conclusion for the post-Soviet space: here they know how to hold on to power, but no one has yet figured out how to ensure its smooth transfer.
Performing on all fronts
On January 11, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev delivered a politically flawless text in the Kazakh parliament. In his speech, signals were sent to different addressees: society as a whole, business and separately oligarchs, security officials and officials. They will delight some, but definitely not.
Mr. Tokayev has put forward an almost revolutionary slogan-promise: to build a “new Kazakhstan”. This wording alone indicates an intention to do away with the former Kazakhstan built by Nursultan Nazarbayev. “We need a new format of a social contract,” the president said. “Kazakhstan will continue the course of political modernization. This is my principled position. “
Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, who previously called the events in the country a terrorist attack from outside and from within, as well as an attempted coup d’etat, said that it was not just conspiracies:
“It should be admitted that the tragic events that have taken place are largely caused by serious socio-economic problems and the ineffective, or rather, the failure of some government agencies.”
The authorities, he self-critically stated, broke away from reality and ignored real problems. “The problem of inequality has also worsened. It is getting worse from year to year, although the average income of the population seems to be growing, at least on paper. However, behind decent average earnings, there is a strong property stratification in society. Many vital problems of citizens have not been resolved, ”Mr. Tokayev said in his speech.
In order to solve social problems from health care to education, he instructed to create a special national fund “Kazakhstan Khalkyn”. The concessions promised to the population did not end there. The President ordered to end the collection of the so-called recycling fee for the import of cars into the country.
This is not the only promise intended to calm the community. Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev announced a five-year moratorium on increasing the salaries of officials – members of the government, heads of regional and district administrations, deputies. At the same time, state employees, on the contrary, were promised their increase. At the same time, the president ordered to stabilize prices, take inflation under control, and solve the problem of the population’s debt load. He also did not forget about business: entrepreneurs were promised a suspension of interest payments, fines and interest on loans.
A separate part of the speech dealt with the power bloc and government agencies in general. The work of the country’s most influential department, the National Security Committee (KNB), was harshly criticized. He, said Mr. Tokayev, “did not see a critical threat to national security.” And now the power bloc is waiting for a reform: “a cardinal reorganization of the entire system of ensuring national security.” “We have to restructure the work of our armed forces, law enforcement agencies, national security agencies, and foreign intelligence. All of them must work harmoniously in the name of one goal – the most effective protection of our citizens, the constitutional order and sovereignty from threats of any nature and scale, ”the president said.
The KNB purge has already begun. Karim Massimov, a loyal Nazarbayevite, who headed the committee until the latest events, was arrested for two months. It was also reported earlier that Nursultan Nazarbayev’s nephew Samat Abish was removed from the post of KNB deputy head. True, there is still no official confirmation of this information.
It is also noteworthy that in his speech, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev only once mentioned his previously untouchable predecessor. And in an unambiguously negative context.
“Thanks to the first president – the elbasy (translated into Russian“ national leader ”.— “B”) – a group of very profitable companies and a layer of people rich even by international standards appeared in the country. I believe that the time has come to pay tribute to the people of Kazakhstan and help them on a systematic and regular basis, ”said President Tokayev. And he added: “The current system is focused mainly on serving large structures on the principle of” all friends, the rest – according to the law. “
This can be deciphered as follows: under Nursultan Nazarbayev, a class of oligarchs was created, which is now time to share super profits.
Finally, Mr. Tokayev mentioned the situation on the border with China. It is widely believed in Kazakhstan that the customs office there is controlled by the relatives of the first president. Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, without naming names, confirmed this: “A significant potential in increasing budget revenues lies in putting things in order at the customs. Especially on the border with China. The real mess going on there is well known. Cars are not searched, taxes and duties are not paid. The discrepancies in the “mirror” statistics with the customs authorities of the PRC reach billions of dollars. There are some “authorized operators” who have the status of untouchables. The country loses tens of billions of tenge in taxes. This will not work. “
The rich pay too
With his speech, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in fact, drew a line under the “Nazarbayev era”. He bluntly said that the old social contract, including the intra-elite one, is over, and the groups that have enriched themselves under the first president must accept the new rules of the game. To begin with, transfer contributions to the national fund. Apparently, this should be viewed as an offer for the old elite – pay or we will deal with you.
“He gave a clear signal to the Kazakhstani Forbes list, which mainly includes people affiliated with the family of the first president. I sent them a signal: it is better to go over to his side. Attempts to challenge him will be harshly suppressed. We see an offer of an informal deal to the oligarchs – go to my team, you will spend money on the goals that I indicate. Some oligarchs have already rushed to declare that they are ready to invest, ”political scientist Dosym Satpayev commented on the speech of the head of Kazakhstan.
Political analyst Gaziz Abishev agrees: “The President took a position, if not nationalization, then plunging state hands into the pockets of the rich. I am sure that over time they will shake the dust off the idea of a progressive tax, which he talked about 2.5 years ago, but faced resistance. The vectors of movement that he voiced are probing the soil. The speech contains strategic tasks that have always been discussed. In particular, the task of reindustrialization and development of education. But these are tasks for decades. “
However, the experts interviewed by Kommersant agree with each other that everything said by President Tokayev is not yet an integral program, but a set of good and even populist statements and wishes. How much it will be possible to implement them in practice is still a question without an answer.
“We are in the midst of a crisis. A week has passed, and I believe that the president and his speechwriters have done the impossible – they have formulated an almost ideal answer to all the needs of society. Certainly, some part of the expectations was so naive and unrealistic that now there is disappointment, but I repeat that the answer was given to almost all sore questions, ”said Rakhim Oshakbaev, director of the Talap Center for Applied Research.
At the same time, Mr. Oshakbayev points out, the country’s government has not changed much. “The measures have been announced, but whether they will be implemented … It will depend on the work of the government, and so far, seeing its renewed composition, frankly speaking, there is no feeling that this is a plan that is being implemented. The only hope is that Tokayev, at the expense of his political will, will be able to eliminate the informal elements of pressure on government policy from the oligarchy. If it works out, the government will be able to work. If not, then everything will be as before, ”the source said to Kommersant.
Everyone noticed that during the days of the crisis, the President of Kazakhstan regularly updated versions of events. At first, it was about the fact that the country was attacked by terrorists trained at home and abroad. It was an external attack that justified the appeal for help to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Later, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke of an attempted coup d’etat. And this is a completely different matter and a direct indication of an internal conspiracy.
In this regard, Dosym Satpayev identifies one more problem. After announcing the coup and starting to deal with the representatives of the former elite, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev confirmed that the main threat to the country was the internal struggle for power. “The whole mess is the result of intra-elite squabbles. The intra-elite split poses a greater threat than the opposition and protests, ”the expert noted.
CSTO, Mr. Satpayev is sure, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev called, firstly, because of distrust of the Kazakh security forces, and secondly, to demonstrate: “If anything, Putin is behind me.”
Rakhim Oshakbayev considers the connection of the CSTO to be critically important. “Both the president and the secretary of state have repeatedly repeated that we were saved from the seizure of six regional centers and Almaty, and then the attack on the capital was saved only by the lightning-fast decision of the CSTO, and first of all, Vladimir Putin on the provision of military assistance. The count went literally for hours and minutes. And that was a watershed moment. This is not just an alliance – this is real friendship. And those who feared that this would be an act of a certain Russian expansion or occupation, two weeks after the withdrawal of the CSTO troops, will be convinced of the opposite, ”says the head of the Talap center.
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev now looks like a winner in a fight with opponents, whoever they are. But at the same time, the events in Kazakhstan have confirmed that there is no ideal scheme for the transit of power in the post-Soviet space. In 2019, it seemed that Nursultan Nazarbayev wisely and on time left, appointing a loyal successor and thereby insuring himself, his environment and family from future troubles. In early 2022, it turned out that this was not the case. The Kazakhstani scenario can no longer be considered a flawless power transfer model. A reason to ponder those leaders of the former Soviet republics who by all means extend their political longevity.
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