A year has passed since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many commentators are making interim summaries of what has happened so far. To a certain extent, the very conclusion of the event, even if an interim conclusion, after a whole year, is a surprise.
It is already easy to forget that senior commentators sat in the news studios, in Israel and around the world, in the first days of the fighting and confidently explained that in a few days the Russian army would be marching through the streets of Kyiv, and some even went so far as to state that the “moral” thing for the Ukrainian leadership to do is to surrender in order to “preserve human life”.
But it was not like that, a year has already passed, and in Israel wrapped in reforms and protests, the wave of terrorism and preventive measures, the issue of war has become more and more marginal and has been pushed to the margins of the headlines.
While it is perfectly natural for Israel to gather inward to deal with its own troubles, it is more important than ever that Israel’s captains, who often tend to be quite conservative in their perceptions of changes in the international space, recognize that one of the most significant changes in recent decades may be happening before their eyes.
One of the reasons why certain commentators were so convinced that the Russian army would easily beat the Ukrainian one is due to their mistaken perception of Europe. For years we have turned Europe into a caricature of itself, remnants of superpowers, a series of divided countries, whose leaders are disconnected from the problems of the people living in the countries of the continent – ancient, bureaucratic, weak and lax.
But this is not the case, the readiness of the countries of the European Union and the United Kingdom, both together and separately, to transfer significant aid to Ukraine, diplomatic, military and economic, with the beginning of the fighting and in the last year in general, were extremely significant. Europe, together with American aid, and to a certain extent with the surprising leadership of the Eastern countries (Poland and the small Baltic states) turned out to have real teeth.
Many also shouted that European countries will not be able to cope with the winter due to their dependence on Russian energy, but even here, the shouters remained surprised. This does not mean that Europe does not have very significant challenges, and that in the current conflict with its neighbor to the east it will not be discriminated against at times, but there is no doubt that it is too early to eulogize the continent.
In the last year, Israeli diplomacy had to deal with a complex situation like no other. Israel’s natural conservatism in security and diplomatic issues has led to sharp criticism of it, both in Europe and the US (from the ranks of both parties) for not helping Ukraine enough in the war.
Immigrants from Ukraine, on the aid plane of the Rescue Union (photo: Mati Barnhart, knitted)
The worrisome cooperation between Iran and Russia in the territory of Ukraine, at the same time as the presence of Russian forces in Syria and the Mediterranean Sea, together with the partial coordination that exists with them regarding the actions that Israel carries out based on publications by foreign parties in the territory of its neighbor to the northeast, produce a complex equation for the decision makers to solve.
On top of that, Israel’s tendency sometimes to choose to help in quiet ways led to the fact that the cannons of criticism thundered from all sides, some said – why aren’t they helping? Others stated – why don’t they say? And Russia, on which a new diplomatic iron curtain descends on it and its Jewish community, in general strongly protested the attempts to help.
The war in Ukraine is a dramatic and significant event for the continent of Europe and the entire world. The Kremlin leaders’ invasion of Ukraine led to a dramatic security reawakening on the continent. NATO, which until recently was seen as a body searching for meaning for itself, has reawakened to him.
The arms race going on in Europe with the aim of discouraging Russia from challenging its eastern borders will promote the development of military technology in the region. Europe’s attempt to free itself from its dependence on Russian energy resources could have extraordinary effects, both politically and energetically.
Recently, many countries in Eastern Europe have expressed an interest in more significant relations with Israel, among other things from a military and security point of view, and in the mouths of many in the leadership of Eastern European countries words of admiration for Israel and its capabilities are heard. More than anything, the war in Ukraine also proved, for the umpteenth time, the importance of the existence of a national home for Jews in Israel – many thousands of Jews, many of them young, flocked to Israel due to the fighting.
Today, a year after the start of the war, there are those who call to divert attention from what is happening in Russia and Ukraine, to close our eyes and move on, because Israel has bigger problems. Those who utter these voices are wrong. The regenerating Europe is an extremely important arena for Israeli diplomacy and strategy.
Eastern Europe, which many preferred to sweep under the carpet, is a lively political region, kicking, and important to the interests of the State of Israel, and not only due to the history of that land (which is also the birthplace of the Jewish national movement about 140 years ago) and the Jews who are on it currently.
The diplomatic challenges surrounding the region today are weighty, but we have no choice but to deal with them, and moreover, it is possible that in order to deal with them as required, we will have to, once again, refresh our perceptions of the continent.
Uri Kidron is a strategic and political consultant, and a research student in the Telam PhD track at the Department of International Relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.