President Erdogan’s balancing act

by time news

No breakthrough, Thursday August 18, in Lviv, during the Zelensky-Erdogan-Guterres meeting. Efforts to allow access for a delegation of inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine were unsuccessful. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demands a prior withdrawal of the Russian forces which have controlled the plant since the beginning of March. For its part, Moscow rejects calls for the demilitarization of the site.

Three of the four power supply lines connecting the plant to the Ukrainian national grid were damaged by bombardments. The Ukrainian nuclear regulator estimates that a total loss of power supply would mean that “the nuclear fuel will begin to melt, resulting in the release of radioactive substances ».” We are worried, said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. We don’t want another Chernobyl. » Despite concerns, experts believe the reactor is in a steel-reinforced concrete building that can withstand extreme external events, both natural and man-made, such as a plane crash or explosions.

Turkish drones assembled in Ukraine

The talks in western Ukraine have once again illustrated the role of mediator played by the Turkish president, the only one to maintain close contact with the two belligerents. Ankara succeeded, at the end of July, in negotiating an agreement for the resumption of Russian and Ukrainian grain exports. A first humanitarian ship chartered by the UN, loaded with 23,000 tons of wheat, left Ukraine on Tuesday, August 16, heading for Ethiopia. “Twenty-five ships were able to leave Ukrainian ports between August 1 and August 18», welcomed Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The large Turkish delegation present in Lviv (Haluk Bayaktar, son-in-law of the president and CEO of Baykar Technology, the company that produces and supplies drones to Ukraine was one of them) reflects the close ties forged between kyiv and Ankara. The drone manufacturer plans to assemble a new model in Ukraine equipped with a locally produced engine. Turkey sends humanitarian aid, welcomes Ukrainian refugees and intends to participate in the reconstruction.

Pro-Ukraine without being anti-Russian

This cooperation does not prevent Ankara from cultivating its relationship with Moscow. So far, President Erdogan seems to have succeeded perfectly in the challenge of being pro-Ukraine without being anti-Russian. His balancing act is to help Ukraine avoid defeat, without coming into conflict with Russia, while showing solidarity with the West and increasing Ankara’s regional diplomatic clout.

«With Russia’s war against Ukraine, Turkey managed to turn the vulnerabilities of its precarious position between Russia, Ukraine and the West into diplomatic assets, explains Yevgeniya Gaber, non-resident researcher of the American group of experts Atlantic Council. Ankara has capitalized on its relations with Kyiv and Moscow, first by offering its mediation services, then by using its constructive role in the conflict to obtain a certain “immunity” vis-à-vis the West to develop relations trade and economic affairs with sanctioned Russian companies, while supporting Ukraine militarily. »

Unlike its Western allies, Turkey does not apply the sanctions imposed on Russia on which it depends for its energy supplies and tourism. Moscow supplies it with about a quarter of its oil imports and almost half of its natural gas needs. And the Russian conglomerate Rosatom is currently building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant in Akkuyu.

Turkey, a privileged destination to escape sanctions

Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkey has become the preferred destination for Russians to escape sanctions. Many Russian entrepreneurs have set up businesses there that buy goods from Europe and Asia before sending them to Russia. Five Turkish banks have adopted the Russian Mir payment system, an alternative to the Western Swift system from which most Russian financial institutions have been excluded. A measure that allows Russian tourists to pay for their purchases and accommodation costs in rubles.

As a result, Turkey has become the main transit point for goods to Russia and the volume of trade between Ankara and Moscow has exploded. Russia has now overtaken China as the main source of Turkish imports. Similarly, Turkey’s exports to Russia increased from $417.3 million in July 2021 to $730 million in July 2022.

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