President of Banco Sabadell | The president of Banco Sabadell, Josep Oliu: “We are not in crisis, quite the contrary. It is a good year for companies”

2023-06-06 22:39:25

“Obviously we are not in crisis -in Spain-, quite the opposite. We are in a relatively good year for companies, in general, except for individual cases”. Josep Oliu Creus, one of the main bankers in the country, stated this Tuesday in Zaragoza. The president of Sabadell highlighted that in 2023 that the growth factor “was worse”, but “we have been surprised” and the forecasts for the country have been updated upwards, from 0.9% to the initial 2%. “The demand has pulled more than we could hope for,” she stressed.

Oliu was the protagonist of an economic gathering held at the CEOE Aragón headquarters, organized jointly by the College of Economists of Aragon and the business confederation. Under the title Faced with a new banking paradigmIn his speech, he presented an x-ray of the economic situation in Spain and was optimistic despite the current difficulties and after three years marked by the “supply hocks” that has occurred in Europe, especially in Spain.

This period of turbulence began with the covid, which “has already been overcome”, to a large extent, he pointed out, thanks to the public support displayed with measures such as the ertes. Although the health crisis left its “dregs” in some sectors such as tourism and hospitality, which were hit hard by the pandemic, these are now those “that are growing the most”.

Inflation and Pandora’s box

Regarding the inflationary spiral, he said the “first pulse” was caused by the supply chain crisis and the second by the energy crisis derived from the war in Ukraine. Faced with this situation, he asserted, “central banks can do little.” “Monetary policy is there but inflation is like Pandora’s box, it is easy to generate but very difficult to put the witch back in the box, It takes time,” he explained.

From a banking point of view, he said, “Fortunately, the stage of negative interest rates has ended and I don’t know if they will return. If it happens, it would be as a consequence of a great crisis that is not in sight”. However, he recalled that this “abrupt” and “rapid” rise in rates has generated problems due to “a shock of expectations”.

“There is a certain fear of making certain investment decisions,” added, like buying a home, waiting for a lower price of money. In this sense, he trusted that “as new ground takes hold” of the interest rates, the investment flow “which is now contained” is reactivated, something that is expected to happen in the year 2024.

He was also confident that inflation could be contained, since the first two elements that caused it to get out of control (raw materials and energy) “have moderated quite a bit.” Another trend that he, in his opinion, has managed to resolve is loss of purchasing power which was registered in general in 2022 due to the gap that occurred between prices and wages, something that he does not believe will happen in 2023.

At this point, he praised the Agreement for the Employment and Collective Bargaining (AENC) 2023–2025 reached a month ago between business organizations and unions. “A very good pact was made,” he remarked, by generating a “stable” framework for the next three years.

On his visit to Zaragoza, the Catalan banker drew attention to the fact that he passes through the Aragonese capital “twice a week” on trains bound for Madrid or Barcelona, ​​”but I don’t stop.” “It is something that must be corrected, from time to time it is necessary to make the trains stop,” he said. “This is a good city, where we have great clients, an area in which we believe due to its dynamism for the future”, asserted.