You have to see this elected official, support of Emmanuel Macron, evacuate the question with the back of his hand: “Since 1974 (date of the first duel), the debates between rounds have never reversed a trend! The famous debate, the climax of each presidential campaign, would it have become a mere formality? Certainly not. We always remember a little phrase that will pass on to posterity (the “You don’t have the monopoly of the heart” from Giscard to Mitterrand), an inspired anaphora (the “Me president” from François Hollande), or a crestfallen expression.
“It remains a very important ritual, very scrutinized. But since 1974, there has been a sort of dialectic between campaign dynamics and the duel, analyzes historian Jean Garrigues, chairman of the parliamentary history committee. It is observed that whoever is in the lead before the duel wins. »
“It does not move anything, or little. This is a great comfort to both sides,” confirms Gilles Finchelstein, Managing Director of the Jean Jaurès Foundation. “2017 is an exception because there was an amplification effect (in favor of Macron) important after the debate. “Because of her poor performance, Marine Le Pen had lost nearly 3% in voting intentions. A question remains, for what is shaping up to be a “return match”: “Can it go the other way and reverse the trend? »
“It cannot be won on the merits”
Their audiences may be very large – 16.5 million viewers watched the Macron-Le Pen duel in 2017 – but the debates would also come almost too late… There would ultimately be few voters left to convince. “Polls show that just 14% of respondents say Wednesday night’s duel could change their minds. It’s very low, ”notes Jean Garrigues.
Analysis shared by Jacques Gerstlé, professor emeritus of political science at Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne: “There are four conditions for the debate to have an impact: a relatively unknown candidate (this is not the case); many undecided voters; tight polls (at the moment there is a growing gap in favor of Macron); and weak partisan loyalty (not what the polls show). All the conditions are therefore not met. »
And if they still hope to change the course of things, the two finalists will have to master the tone of their interventions. “It is not won on the merits, evacuates Jean Garrigues, except that of 2017 where Marine Le Pen had shown its limits. It is above all a question of image: competence, authority, composure, consistency. Whoever manages to synthesize these elements will be in a good position. »