On April 10, 2022, the French qualified Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen for the second round of the presidential election. An unsurprising result, given the trends published by the polls throughout the campaign. The reality, however, is more nuanced by looking through the results maps with a magnifying glass.
Five years after the first leg, the French have not voted the same way from one corner of France to another. Here is a compilation of the most unexpected information identified by peeling the cards from the first round.
France became tricolor
If the drop in the vote on the right had been predicted by the pollsters, the extent of the defeat of Valérie Pécresse was underestimated. Worse, certain territories, reputed to be impregnable to the so-called “republican” right – inherited from Gaullism – have suddenly changed sides. A trend not seen since the aftermath of the Second World War.
The absence of the Socialist Party from these cards is less surprising. In 2017, Benoît Hamon had already disappeared from the radar. In its wake, Anne Hidalgo’s historically low score had also been expected from the first days of the campaign in the fall of 2021.
A corridor now occupied by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who delights most of the territories anchored on the left. Its siphoning of socialist and environmentalist voices is visible almost everywhere, even in Overseas France where it is very much in force.
The expected and – almost – generalized increase in abstention
Few surprises on the abstention front. On April 10, 2022, one in four registered voters did not go to the polls. This is much more than in 2017 (22.2%). But certain territories, which are very different, qualify this observation.
The rush of Parisians to the polls is a first surprise. That of the West Indian departments is less so, given the extent of the protest against the government’s vaccination policy. This mobilization largely benefited the candidate of rebellious France.
But why such a global lack of interest? A basic trend: a lack of love for politics or a feeling of abandonment and estrangement from the concerns of the political class expressed by many French people.
“It is the popular categories, the young, the low incomes, the low levels of diplomas who abstain”
Paul Bacot, emeritus professor of political science at Sciences Po Lyon
It also appears that the news of recent months has weighed. Many observers point out that with the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the campaign has struggled to take hold. Abstention, however, is not at an all-time high. On April 21, 2002, it was 28.4%, against 26.3% this year.
Right-wing territories rock at Macron
The election of Emmanuel Macron as President of the Republic in 2017 surprised more than one observer, well beyond our borders. This is much less the case for his qualification in the second round five years later. However, the past five-year term has left its mark, for the worse as well as for the better, as evidenced by the change in the geography of its supporters.
The vigor of the campaign of the two far-right candidates posed the threat of a massive transfer of votes from the Republican right to its most radical side. If no one will be able to measure it precisely, our territorial analysis shows that many votes have gone to the outgoing president.
The Le Pen vote is uprooted and spreads towards the West
Qualified for the second round, Marine Le Pen comes first in nearly 20,000 municipalities, more than in 2017 (just over 19,000 localities) and more than Emmanuel Macron who is first in less than 12,000 municipalities, generally more populated.
The rooting of the National Rally in the North, East and South-East has been known for a long time and was amplified during the local elections which disrupted François Hollande’s five-year term.
The drop in the RN vote in its preferred territories is a real surprise. Conversely, its progression almost everywhere else, starting with the western half of the country, was not anticipated.
Mélenchon explodes in the city, but drops in most rural areas
If the candidate of La France insoumise did not transform the test, he will however have garnered 800,000 additional votes compared to 2017. A global trend which hides significant changes in the distribution of his electorate.
Paris, Toulouse, Montpellier, Lille, Strasbourg, Nantes, Rennes… it was in the big cities and in certain close suburbs that he was able to do well.
Although he won 31% of the vote in towns with more than 100,000 inhabitants, far ahead of his opponents, his ousting from the most rural towns received less comment. Coming in first in only 3,000 municipalities, the drop in its score in most rural areas shows that the growth in its score is far from uniform.
The unpublished voting card for Eric Zemmour
It was one of the great unknowns of this first round. Where did Eric Zemmour’s supporters vote? The weakness of its national score hides certain local realities, where it has been able to impose itself in several landscapes, marked out for a long time by the Republican right as by the National Rally.
It was clearly on the Mediterranean coast that he garnered the most votes. In particular in the Alpes-Maritimes and in the Var, acquired from the Le Pen clan.
“It gives the feeling that it was he who went to get a large number of voters for the far right”
Sylvain Manternach, cartographer
Given the importance of the RN vote in previous elections in the North-East quarter of the country, Eric Zemmour’s score was particularly expected there. The weakness of its results in these territories is clearly another surprise of this election.
The failure of Pécresse even in the areas promised to the right
Long given a credible challenger behind Macron and Le Pen, candidate LR lost ground throughout the campaign.
“We now have to recompose everything from floor to ceiling”
Roger Karoutchi, 1st Vice-President of the Senate
The extent of the defeat, however, was not anticipated. To the point of removing the shades of blue from regions acquired on the right for several decades.
The fall is global. With 4.8% of the vote at the national level, it remains – according to our calculations – below the 5% mark in rural areas, and is even more struggling in towns with more than 100,000 inhabitants.
The president of the Ile-de-France region, painfully exceeds 6.2% in some 1,200 Ile-de-France municipalities. In its department of Yvelines, it rises to 8%, while in its strongholds of Vélizy-Villacoublay and Versailles, it pulls scores of 11% and 14%.
The environmental push stopped in the cities, where it was most expected
At the municipal elections of 2020, they had the wind in their sails. Victims of the useful vote, environmentalists suddenly miss the march. Yannick Jadot, collects 4.6% of the vote, while a boulevard had opened with their 13% recorded in the Europeans of 2019.
In 2017, environmentalists had not presented any candidate. It is therefore impossible to analyze the evolution of their performance throughout the country.
The weakness of its score, even in cities won in 2020, is surprising. In Lyon (Rhône), 2020 municipal trophy, Yannick Jadot only collects 7.7% of the vote. It does a little better in Bordeaux (Gironde), also led by the Greens: 8.2%. And a little less in Paris (5.9%).
The breakthrough of Jean Lassalle
In the race for “small” candidates, the surprise comes from Jean Lassalle and his 1,101,387 votes (3.2%). Follow Fabien Roussel (2.3%), Anne Hidalgo (1.7%), Philippe Poutou (0.8%) and Nathalie Arthaud (0.6%). The native of Lourdios-Ichère (Pyrénées-Atlantiques) was particularly worn in the Southwest.
The relatively high score at the national level of Jean Lassalle, and more particularly in the South-West, surprised more than one observer. In his native Béarn, on the other hand, it is falling.
The candidate of Resist! chose not to give voting instructions to its voters for the second round. A reservation shared with Nathalie Arthaud, which contrasts with the position of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan who called on the French to “do everything to block Macron”. As for Philippe Poutou, he invited the French to “vote against Le Pen”.
Hidalgo routed, even in his Parisian citadel
Wearing the socialist colors, the mayor of Paris did not exceed 2% during the first round of the presidential election. Surpassing the explosion caused by the 6% collected by Benoît Hamon in 2017.
A terrible result, which has no equivalent in the history of the socialist party. Even Gaston Deferre, SFIO candidate in 1969, had totaled 5% of the vote.
The mayor of Paris was placed in seventh position by the Parisians. She won 2.2% of the vote there. The fact that she is struggling to surpass her score at home in the capital, where she was comfortably re-elected in 2020, represents a new surprise.
For the first time, the far right penetrates several districts of Paris
In addition to the ghostly score of the mayor of Paris, her total ousting by the radical left is a historic first.
Similarly, the appearance of a vote on the far right within the confines of the ring road represents a completely new phenomenon.
Beyond Paris, the defeat of Yannick Jadot embodies the crossroads between a population increasingly concerned about climate issues and struggling to identify the political staff capable of leading the ecological transition.