But in our complex world there are always problems, as they say in the film industry, “second plan”, which, nevertheless, cannot be dismissed either. Otherwise, we will get the next open crises, to get out of which extraordinary efforts will be required. If we talk about Russia, then one of these problems is population migration.
We complain that there are fewer and fewer Russians. As of January 1, 2018, there were 146 million 880 thousand of us, and at the beginning of this year – already 146 million 171 thousand.That is, minus 700 thousand.Of course, COVID contributed, but the trend appeared even before it.
Now let’s take the Russian regions. The Central Federal District adds to the population, but exclusively at the expense of Moscow and the Moscow region. The rest of the Central Administrative District is steadily losing people. Exactly the same – the North-Western District, where St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region are helping out. And, of course, the southern regions of Russia are in the black. But the population of most regions and republics of the Volga region, the Urals, Siberia and the Far East is constantly decreasing. This is superimposed on a decrease in the number of villagers – there are no more than a quarter of the Russian population.
All this speaks not only of a decrease in the number of Russians, but also of the steady depopulation of our vast territory, which extends beyond Moscow, several million-plus cities and the fertile South. For some reason, this fundamental problem for Russia is not paid due attention to in those places where strategic decisions are made. Yes, there are formal government documents on spatial development – the last one was adopted in February 2019 and is expected to last until 2025. Let’s see what happens in this case, but the quality of public administration in our country has dropped to a level where the papers issued from the pen of officials, as a rule, have nothing to do with real life. Isn’t that why we have been unable to launch economic growth and structural reforms for 10 years?
The growing contradiction between the vastness of our territory and the declining population, which, moreover, is gathering in areas that are not numerous in area, from time to time gives rise to dubious ideas.
For example, to expand the flow of those leaving the Far East by distributing free land, coupled with symbolic monetary handouts. And relentless statistics show that people – first of all, the young and the most active – continue to leave for the European part of Russia.
Or it was proposed to attract “compatriots” from abroad who so dream of returning to their historical homeland that they are ready to explore the “eastern territories”. For this, back in 2006, a special state program was adopted, which provides for lifting money, a number of other payments and benefits to those who expressed a desire to come not to the capital cities. And what is the result? Several hundred thousand new citizens of Russia are not bad, but, as we can see, this was not enough to change trends.
If we talk about the future prospects of attracting people to Russia for permanent residence (and not for seasonal work!), Then let’s be aware that a miracle will not happen.
First, most of our compatriots who wanted to return have already done so. The rest, due primarily to economic reasons, prefer to stay abroad: after all, in European countries and the United States, the level and quality of life is visibly higher than ours.
Secondly, the younger generations of our compatriots successfully fit into the local order, which shape their life from birth.
Thirdly, Russian society as a whole is not ready to accept as full citizens from the so-called far abroad, people with other cultural, religious and other roots. And they are not particularly eager for us – and not only because of the differences just mentioned, but also because our already ten-year economic and social stagnation sharply reduces for them the purely economic attractiveness of moving to Russia. We see that migrants from the conventional world South by hook or by crook are striving, first of all, to Europe and North America, and not to us.
By the way, statistics confirm the fact of gradual depletion of external resources to replenish the population of Russia. If in 2011 we received 320 thousand new citizens due to the migration increase, then in the future this level has never been reached again, dropping in some years to less than 150 thousand people.
This does not exclude emergencies when large numbers of migrants are trying to get to Russia. For example, in 2014–2015, hundreds of thousands of immigrants from the Ukrainian Donbass came to us. And now, judging by the events taking place in Afghanistan, we can receive an equal flow of refugees from Central Asian countries, to which Islamic fundamentalists will undoubtedly try to spread their influence.
Therefore, in the coming years, if not decades, Russia will have to throw its main efforts towards the development of the country, relying on the maximum efficiency of using the existing human potential.
This should mean, firstly, a sharp increase – not less than one and a half, and preferably two times – investment in education, health care, culture, and social protection. Secondly, the freedom of entrepreneurial initiative and, thirdly, the revival of local self-government.
If, thanks to this, we someday enter the cohort of economically developed states with competitive living conditions in the world and a well-equipped territory of our own, then it will be possible to apply for the admission of migrants who want to become Russians.
But there is one more category of “come in large numbers” – those who aspire to Russia to earn money, which are transferred to the families left at home. We have several million of these people. Some of them, apparently, would like to stay in Russia forever and is achieving this within the framework of those small numbers of new Russians, which have already been mentioned.
It should be noted that the flow of labor (temporary) migrants has been decreasing in recent years. At first, this happened due to the twofold depreciation of the ruble, which has occurred in recent years. Foreign exchange earnings of migrant workers fell sharply – after all, it is dollars and euros that they transfer home from Russia.
The long-term economic depression also affects, which does not contribute to the creation of new jobs, including those for which labor migrants apply primarily.
Finally, covid added problems with border closures.
The shortage of migrant hands has already become, despite the long-term economic depression, so tangible that even the government has started talking about it as a problem. This applies primarily to construction and seasonal agricultural work. Out of despair, they even suggest such a notoriously ineffective measure as the use of prisoners’ labor, in particular, for the reconstruction of the BAM.
But something is not visible real action in order to start solving this problem. Although there is nothing complicated about it. A proposal has long been expressed (including by the author of these lines) to conclude interstate agreements with countries from where the bulk of labor (temporary) migrants come to us.
These agreements should provide for:
– recruitment of employees for Russian enterprises and execution of all necessary documents on the spot, even before they leave for Russia;
– creation of training centers for work in Russia in donor countries of labor (temporary) migrants (training in professions, the Russian language, etc.);
– measures to provide workers arriving in Russia with temporary housing, medical care and measures in case of emergencies in them, observance of their labor rights.
If all this is done, then the current problems of the labor market will be largely resolved, and potentially the country can get new citizens who are economically, culturally and mentally ready to consider Russia their second homeland.
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