Slovakia Election: Pro-Kremlin Party Secures More Votes Than Expected, Poses Challenge to NATO and EU Unity on Ukraine
In a surprising turn of events, a party led by a pro-Kremlin figure has come out on top in an election in Slovakia, securing more votes than expected. Preliminary results released by Slovakia’s Statistical Office show that Robert Fico’s populist SMER party won 23.3% of the vote. A liberal and pro-Ukrainian party, Progressive Slovakia (PS), came in second place with 17% of the vote.
Fico, a two-time former prime minister, now has the opportunity to regain his position but must first seek coalition partners as his party did not secure enough votes to win outright. The moderate-left Hlas party, led by a former SMER member, came in third place with 15% of the vote and could play a crucial role in coalition negotiations.
With seven political parties reaching the 5% threshold needed to enter the parliament, coalition negotiations are expected to involve multiple players and could be complex and lengthy.
The results are better than expected for SMER, as last week’s opinion polls showed SMER and PS neck and neck. The outcome of the election poses a challenge to NATO and EU unity on Ukraine, as Fico has pledged to end Slovak military support for Ukraine and block Ukraine’s NATO ambitions. This stands in contrast to Slovakia’s previous staunch support for Ukraine.
Peter Pellegrini, the leader of Hlas, expressed his satisfaction with the party’s result and emphasized that Hlas will be an essential party in the formation of a coalition government.
Slovakia, with a population of about 5.5 million people, has seen a series of unstable coalition governments in recent years. The election outcome has potentially serious consequences for the region, as Slovakia is a member of both NATO and the European Union and has been a strong advocate for tough EU sanctions against Russia.
Under Fico’s leadership, Slovakia’s position on Ukraine is expected to change. Fico has blamed “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists” for provoking Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, echoing the false narrative used by Russian President Vladimir Putin to justify the invasion.
Fico’s close alliance with Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orban, particularly in criticizing the European Union, has fueled speculation that a return to power for Fico could result in obstacles for Brussels. If Poland’s governing Law and Justice party also wins in the upcoming parliamentary elections, this bloc of EU troublemakers could become even stronger.
In contrast, the liberal PS party has been pushing for a different future for Slovakia, advocating continued strong support for Ukraine and close links with the West.
Fico previously served as Slovakia’s prime minister for over a decade before being forced to resign in 2018 following mass protests over the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancée. Kuciak had reported on corruption among Slovakia’s elite, including individuals connected to Fico and his party SMER.
The campaign leading up to the election was marked by concerns over disinformation, with European Commission’s top digital affairs official highlighting the importance of countering Russian propaganda in Slovakia.
Polls have indicated that Fico’s pro-Russia sentiments are shared by a significant portion of the Slovak population. A survey by Bratislava-based security think tank GlobSec found that only 40% of Slovaks believe Russia is responsible for the war in Ukraine, the lowest proportion among the eight central and eastern European and Baltic states included in the research.
Furthermore, 50% of Slovaks perceive the United States, their long-term ally, as a security threat, according to the same survey.
The election results highlight the complex political landscape in Slovakia and the challenges it poses to NATO and EU unity on Ukraine. The formation of a coalition government will be crucial in determining the future direction of the country.