At the midpoint of the season, the No. 1 team in the country is open for the College Football Playoff selection committee to debate.
Texas has a strong case with a true road win at Michigan, and now a neutral-site win against rival Oklahoma. The Longhorns are also looking the part of an SEC and national title contender. But here comes Oregon, flying high after what is now the best win in the country, against Ohio State.
The one thing we do know after seven weeks of results? The Big Ten and SEC are still leading the playoff pack — just not necessarily the teams you might have expected at this point. As Alabama fades and Penn State rises, here’s the weekly prediction of what the committee’s top 12 might look like if its rankings were released today.
Remember, this is NOT a projection of what it will look like on Selection Day. Rather, it’s a snapshot of who’s in the driver’s seat now, based on what they have done to this point.
The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from this ranking as well. The top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Longhorns dismantled rival Oklahoma with no hint of an upset, adding what could be a win against a second ranked opponent to their résumé in addition to Michigan. Even if neither are ranked on Selection Day, as long as both opponents finish .500 or better, the committee will still consider them respectable wins, and a nonconference road win in Ann Arbor is still better than what multiple other contenders have in their nonconference lineup. OU entered the game ranked in the top 20 in both defensive and special teams efficiency, and Texas was able to run the ball against the Sooners and outgain them 406-237 total yards.
Why they could be lower: Oregon now has one of the best wins in the country and a case for the top spot. The committee would also respect the Ducks’ road win at rival Oregon State, which is 4-2, and the victory against Boise State is probably a win against a ranked opponent. Some committee members might think the Ducks have better wins than Texas — and can make a case for it.
Need to know: The selection committee considers injuries to key players as part of its protocol, so some of their conversation about Texas would include the play of quarterback Quinn Ewers. He overcame a sluggish start, with a sack on the first play and an interception on his first pass to help Texas win after sitting out a month because of an oblique injury. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian has made it clear there’s no quarterback controversy with backup Arch Manning, and Saturday’s game was evidence for the committee the Longhorns have two QBs who can win.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Georgia
Why they could be here: At the midpoint of the season, Oregon has arguably the best win in the country, as Saturday’s victory over Ohio State should trump Alabama’s win over Georgia in the eyes of the committee. Both of Oregon’s best wins, though, were at home. Texas went to Ann Arbor and also won a neutral-site game. The committee also evaluates the entire schedule, and the season-opening win against Idaho was less than stellar. Texas, meanwhile, has dominated every team it has faced.
Why they could be higher: Some committee members could argue the Ducks have the best combination of eye test and résumé. It certainly wasn’t a flawless performance against Ohio State, especially with multiple miscues on special teams, but quarterback Dillon Gabriel was a star and accounted for three touchdowns.
Need to know: That was Oregon’s most difficult game of the season, and the win gives the Ducks a cushion as three of their next five games are on the road. Even with a stumble, though, Oregon is in a strong position for an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the Big Ten. If Oregon doesn’t win the league, the best-case scenario for the Ducks would be to lose to Ohio State — not Penn State — in the Big Ten championship game, because then they could claim a regular-season win against the Big Ten champs.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 2 at Michigan
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions have three wins on their résumé that would impress the committee, including two on the road. The season opener at West Virginia is a respectable win, beating Illinois continues to look decent, even as the Illini needed overtime to fend off Purdue, and the cross-country overtime win at USC is the highlight of their schedule so far. The combination of those wins — plus Alabama’s poor play over the past two weeks — elevated the Nittany Lions.
Why they could be lower: Penn State continues to find ways to win but still leaves a little bit of doubt that it’s a top-four team. Against USC, Penn State was trailing 20-6 at the half, and quarterback Drew Allar threw three interceptions.
Need to know: The win against USC gave the Nittany Lions a much-needed cushion heading into the next two games against Wisconsin and Ohio State. Penn State has a bye week before traveling to Wisconsin, which could be a tougher game than expected, considering the Badgers seem to have found their offensive groove after a 42-7 drubbing of Rutgers. The back half of the schedule still holds the best opportunity for PSU to solidify itself as a playoff team in the eyes of the committee.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 2 vs. Ohio State
Why they could be lower: Their best win is against 4-2 Iowa, and Georgia’s best win is against Clemson. No wins against ranked opponents and no games against Power 4 opponents in the nonconference hurts.
Need to know: Ohio State still has to face Penn State, Indiana and rival Michigan — three opponents that can either enhance the Buckeyes’ playoff résumé or put them in danger of reaching the Big Ten title game. This loss puts the pressure on Ohio State to win at Penn State. If not, the Buckeyes will need to hope Indiana and Michigan are still ranked on Selection Day to boost their at-large chances.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 2 at Penn State
Why they could be here: Head-to-head results are one of the selection committee’s tiebreakers when teams are comparable, but if enough people don’t think Alabama and Georgia are on par, it can be overlooked in the ranking. This has happened before (in 2021, the committee ranked Michigan over Michigan State when they were both 9-1 and the Spartans beat the Wolverines). After Alabama lost at unranked Vanderbilt and nearly lost at home Saturday to unranked South Carolina, the committee probably would sink the Tide this week for their poor play two straight weeks.
Why they could be lower: There could be committee members who still honor Alabama’s 41-34 win on Sept. 28 over Georgia. The Bulldogs upended a beleaguered Mississippi State team but it wasn’t easy or pretty. Carson Beck’s fourth-quarter interception in the end zone allowed Mississippi State to hang around after they had a 24-point lead in the first half.
Need to know: Don’t forget about Georgia’s season-opening win against Clemson. The selection committee won’t, and it looks better each week as the Tigers continue to roll. If Georgia has a win against the eventual ACC champion, that could be significant if the Bulldogs don’t win the SEC.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Texas
Why they could be here: The selection committee pays attention to how games unfold, and anyone watching could see that Alabama was fortunate to win at home against an unranked South Carolina team. The Tide avoided what would have been a disastrous loss to a Gamecocks team that lost three fumbles, their most in a game since 2022. For the second straight week, Alabama has played poorly, which indicates the loss to Vanderbilt was more than a fluke letdown on the road after an emotional win over Georgia. Still, the win against Georgia remains one of the best in the country at the midpoint of the season, though that, too, could change as the Bulldogs’ season unfolds.
Why they could be lower: The combination of Alabama’s penalties (seven), turnovers (two), and sacks allowed (four, the most this season) — none of it resembled a team that looks capable of winning the national title.
Need to know: The committee also considers common opponents, and Alabama and Clemson both faced Georgia. The Tide’s win against the Bulldogs is a big reason why the committee probably would have Alabama ahead of Clemson at this point even though Alabama has a worse loss and they have similar records.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 9 at LSU
Why they could be here: After back-to-back weeks of down-to-the-wire thrillers, the bye week came at an opportune time, giving Miami a much-needed reset before heading to Louisville. The Canes would move up or down during a bye week only as a result of teams around them fluctuating. Miami still doesn’t have a win against a ranked opponent, but the committee would recognize a difficult cross-country road win against an improving Cal team. And while the Canes have played only one game outside of their home state, the committee would still respect the true road win against rival Florida.
Why they could be higher: Miami is still undefeated, and Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State are not.
Need to know: Miami doesn’t play Pitt or Clemson during the regular season, so it might finish without one win against a ranked opponent — something that will hold it back in the committee meeting room only if it doesn’t win the ACC. If the Canes finish as a one-loss runner-up without any wins against CFP top-25 teams, the committee’s evaluation of strength of schedule will be critical. Will the committee reward Miami, or a two-loss team from the SEC that played a tougher schedule? Or will there be room for both? To avoid the debate, Miami needs to win its conference.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Louisville
Why they could be here: Since the season-opening loss to Georgia, Clemson has reeled off five straight wins and scored at least 40 points in four of them. The Tigers also added back-to-back road wins to their résumé. Still, none of those wins have been against ranked opponents and none of them have a winning record. That’s something that will hold them back in the committee meeting room, especially when most, if not all, contenders ranked above them have played a tougher schedule and/or are undefeated. The committee would also still honor Georgia’s season-opening win against the Tigers, and Clemson probably would be behind Bama because the Tide was able to beat Georgia and Clemson did not.
Why they could be higher: Unlike Alabama (South Carolina), Georgia (Mississippi State) and Miami (Virginia Tech and Cal), Clemson has manhandled every unranked team it has faced. In the past, the committee has been wowed by a team’s sheer dominance as a way of compensating for a weaker schedule, and those teams typically have NFL-caliber talent to prove it.
Need to know: Clemson’s November games against Pitt and South Carolina give the Tigers slightly more wiggle room than Miami as an at-large contender if they don’t win the ACC — at least right now. The committee takes into account rivalry games, and Clemson still has South Carolina, which proved it has a defense against Bama on Saturday. Getting a road win against a ranked Pitt team that is currently undefeated would also be valued by the group.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 at Pitt
Why they could be here: The Cougars have earned half of their wins on the road and forced four turnovers in a complete performance against Arizona. BYU continues to have an edge in the Big 12 standings — and probably also in the committee meeting room. The committee also considers opponents’ opponents, and will appreciate BYU’s win against SMU, which beat a respectable Louisville team.
Why they could be lower: BYU almost lost to four-loss Baylor before its bye week. Wins against a 1-4 Wyoming team and an FCS opponent could hold them back even more.
Need to know: The Cougars are off to their best start since 2020 and have a chance to finish as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions if they can sustain this success and win the Big 12. It’s not going to be easy, though, with trips to UCF, rival Utah, and a Nov. 23 matchup to play at a suddenly soaring Arizona State team.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Arizona State
Why they could be here: There is such a thing as a “good loss” in the committee meeting room and Boise State’s 37-34 defeat at Oregon on Sept. 7 now looks even better after the Ducks’ win over Ohio State. The Broncos and Buckeyes put up an equally good fight in Autzen Stadium. It’s better than LSU’s loss to USC, as the Trojans just suffered their third loss of the season. Boise State also has a double-digit win against Washington State, which is 5-1, and the Broncos have dominated weaker, unranked opponents. The committee also looks for Heisman-caliber players like Ashton Jeanty.
Why they could be lower: They’re still lacking a true statement win, which LSU just earned against Ole Miss. The committee also notes wins against FCS opponents, and Boise State has a lopsided one against Portland State.
Need to know: If Boise State runs the table and wins the Mountain West Conference, it could have a chance to be one of the four highest-ranked conference champions and earn a first-round bye. Those spots are not reserved for the Big 12, SEC, Big Ten and ACC — they are for the four highest-ranked conference champions. Period.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at UNLV
Why they could be here: LSU finally earned a statement win against a ranked opponent, and the Tigers’ loss to USC in the season opener at Las Vegas isn’t something that will keep it out of the playoff.
Why they could be lower: The overtime win against Ole Miss is the lone highlight. Wins against FCS Nicholls, 2-4 South Alabama of the Sun Belt, and a 1-4 UCLA team aren’t enough to catapult LSU much higher.
Need to know: The selection committee considers common opponents, and while South Carolina gave both LSU and Alabama fits, LSU beat South Carolina in a true road game, and the Tide struggled at home. Also in that category, Vanderbilt beat Kentucky — something Ole Miss couldn’t do.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 26 at Texas A&M
Why they could be here: It starts with the fact that Tennessee lost to Arkansas and needed overtime to beat Florida. Notre Dame’s home loss to Northern Illinois is still there. Iowa State? Road wins at Iowa, Houston and now West Virginia could catapult the Cyclones onto the committee’s radar. The problem is that none of those teams — at least right now — are ranked, and while it’s extremely difficult to win at West Virginia, the Mountaineers are now a three-loss team.
Why they could be higher: Iowa State is playing well consistently — and hasn’t lost. The committee also pays attention to how teams fare against an opponents’ strengths, and the Cyclones’ defense held WVU to 148 rushing yards when the Mountaineers were averaging 201.5. Iowa State has also given up only 26 total points in the second half of six games this season.
Need to know: The committee considers common opponents, and both Penn State and Iowa State went on the road and beat West Virginia by double digits.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. Kansas State
Based on the rankings above, the top four seeds would be: No. 1 Texas (SEC champ), No. 2 Oregon (Big Ten champ), No. 3 Miami (ACC champ) and No. 4 BYU (Big 12 champ). Each would receive a bye. Eight remaining seeds would play on-campus first-round games. Those matchups would be: No. 12 Iowa State at No. 5 Penn State; No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ohio State; No. 10 Boise State (fifth conference champ) at No. 7 Georgia; and No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Alabama.