– China will pose a significant intelligence threat in 2024. We expect the threat to increase over the next few years. This is mainly due to the worsening relationship between China and the West, China’s desire for increased control over supply chains and positioning in the Arctic, writes the Norwegian Security Service (PST) in the ungraded threat assessment for 2024.
– The war still contributes to intensifying the intelligence threat from Russia. At the same time, Norway’s NATO membership and our common border mean that Russia will use its intelligence services against Norwegian targets in the foreseeable future, writes the service.
Together with the Norwegian Intelligence Service and the National Security Agency (NSM), PST presented its threat assessments for 2024 on Monday.
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More dangerous than last year
– Today we face a more dangerous security policy situation than a year ago. Future developments are uncertain. The conflicts of interest between authoritarian states and the West are becoming clearer, writes chief Nils Andreas Stensønes for the E-service in the foreword to the threat assessment Fokus 2024.
PST expects that Russia and China will carry out the most attempts to obtain Norwegian goods and technology in covert ways in 2024.
– The aim will be to strengthen their own military. In addition, other states of concern will also seek to acquire technology relevant to their military weapons programs, including the development of weapons of mass destruction and the means of delivery thereof, states the PST’s assessment.
War and polarization
The escalation of the war in Ukraine two years ago and the polarization in world politics form an increasingly clear backdrop to the threats to Norwegian security.
- China and Russia will conduct active intelligence against Norway and Norwegian interests this year as well.
- The intelligence we target both individuals and businesses in Norway.
- Cyber operations and recruitment of sources will be among the most central.
- Norwegian petroleum infrastructure can be affected by physical sabotage and destructive cyber attacks.
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NSM: Democracy under pressure
The National Security Authority tries to prevent all attempts at digital attacks or intrusion into all civilian areas of interest for foreign espionage or intelligence. In this year’s report, it is highlighted that 64 countries and the EU will hold elections.
– Artificial intelligence makes fabricated news increasingly credible. Combined with the fact that disinformation can be spread on a completely different scale than before, the foundations of democratic governance are being challenged, writes NSM.
The development and spread of artificial intelligence will require more vigilance from the responsible authorities, but also the individual who must be alert to the challenges it represents.
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