INSEE is revising its forecasts slightly upwards. Inflation reached 6.3% in February over one year, the national statistics institute announced on Wednesday, a little more than the 6.2% forecast, which already marked an acceleration compared to the month of January (6%). Driven by soaring food prices, which have become its primary driving force ahead of energy, it is in any case returning to its rate of last October and November.
“This rise in inflation is due to the acceleration in food prices”, which jumped 14.8% over one year (after 13.3% in January), detailed INSEE in a press release. . Both fresh products (15%), especially vegetables and fruit, and non-fresh products (14.8%) such as bread, cereals, meat, sugar, jam, chocolate or drinks, are affected by this trend.
Towards a gradual decline to 5% in June
The prices of services (3% after 2.6%) – catering, accommodation, transport, rents, etc. – and manufactured products (4.7% after 4.5%) such as furniture and toys also continued to rise. Conversely, energy prices slowed (14.1% after 16.3% in January), mainly due to a slowdown in petroleum products and gas. Those of electricity, on the other hand, were driven by the capped increase in regulated tariffs.
Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile elements such as energy and certain food products, and thus makes it possible to identify an underlying trend in price movements, rose to 6.1% over a year in February, after 5.6% in January.
Since the take-off in consumer prices, under the effect of the disruptions in post-Covid supply chains and then the war in Ukraine, the inflation rate has returned to levels not seen since the 1980s.
It should gradually decline to 5% in June, INSEE predicted in early February. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), used for Europe-wide comparisons, stood at 7.3% year on year in February, down from 7% in January.