2023-10-08 19:48:00
The three parties of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left coalition suffered a severe defeat on Sunday in elections in two large regions, conservative strongholds, which also show a surge in the far right, according to initial estimates. The chancellor’s Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the liberals of the FDP are in decline in the two elections which took place in Bavaria (south), the largest German state in terms of surface area, and in Hesse (west) where Frankfurt is the headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB). In Bavaria, the FDP would not have reached the 5% necessary to remain in parliament.
Mid-term, the government of Olaf Scholz was thus sanctioned in elections where the population’s concern over the industrial crisis experienced by Europe’s largest economy and the resurgence of the migration issue played a central role.
“A punishment” for the government
According to estimates, the conservatives won both elections as expected and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party could take second place. “We are on the right track,” quickly reacted AfD co-leader Alice Weidel, interpreting the results as “a punishment” for the government and “a vote for change”.
This anti-immigration party, which also criticizes climate protection measures assimilated to high prices and constraints, thus confirmed its surge in the polls at the national level, where it received between 20 and 22% of voting intentions, behind the right. He took advantage of the fact that the campaign largely focused on criticism of the coalition in power since December 2021, undermined by incessant quarrels.
Another campaign issue: fears of a new migration crisis like that of 2015, due to an increase in arrivals of asylum seekers, particularly from Syria and Afghanistan, via Poland, Austria and the neighboring Czech Republic.
“It’s a very disappointing performance”
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 had fostered a period of unity within the government. But frictions then increased on all subjects, from reducing budgetary spending to measures to combat global warming.
In Hesse, the SPD led by Interior Minister Nancy Faeser paid the price: the party would come in only fourth position (15.2%), after the AfD (16.8%) and the Greens (15 .5%), and far behind the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by an unknown person, Boris Rhein, which won 34.7%, a clear increase compared to 2018 (27%), according to first estimates.
“Unfortunately, we did not succeed in establishing ourselves with our themes. It’s a very disappointing performance,” reacted the minister, a government heavyweight who intends to keep her Interior portfolio.
In Bavaria, the thunderous head of government Markus Söder certainly won the election, but with a slightly lower result (36.7%) and the worst in more than 70 years for his Christian Social Union (CSU) party, avatar regional of the CDU. This score could weaken his presumed desire to become chancellor.
The AfD (15.8%) and the Greens (15.6%) are neck and neck for second place in Bavaria, while the SPD, chronically weak in this Land, is still losing votes (8.5% ).
Markus Söder is expected to renew his coalition with the Free Voters (Freie Wähler), a very conservative party established in the countryside which received 14% of the vote. The popularity of this group did not suffer, on the contrary, from the controversy this summer around an anti-Semitic leaflet attributed to their leader, Hubert Aiwanger (52), and dating back to his adolescence. His brother eventually claimed paternity.
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