[北, 러시아 파병]
Putin: Decide on mutual military support when the time comes
Claimed, “Just as Ukraine receives help through cooperation with NATO, North Korea and Russia make a sovereign decision to support each other.”
Analysis of “remarks aimed at securing justification for dispatching troops”… Ukraine: North Korea trains 12,000 people
“When the time comes for Russia and North Korea to decide (on mutual military support), we will make that decision sovereignly.”
On the 25th (local time), Russian President Vladimir Putin again emphasized the North Korea-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty (North Korea-Russia Treaty). It has been a day since he mentioned the treaty the previous day, saying, “It’s up to us to take care of it,” regarding the dispatch of North Korean troops. This can be interpreted as an attempt to emphasize that the dispatch of North Korean troops is a legitimate act, but it is expected to have significant repercussions given that Russia has publicly declared that it can also dispatch troops to the Korean Peninsula in case of emergency.
As President Putin reaffirmed military cooperation with North Korea, the possibility of a war in Ukraine as well as tensions on the Korean Peninsula has increased. Although Russia has been at war for more than two years, it has cooperated with the West in non-proliferation of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, but there are concerns that this deployment of troops may lead to overcoming the ‘last bastion’. The New York Times (NYT) also predicted, “The global nuclear non-proliferation system could be in danger.”
● “North Korea-Russia military cooperation, sovereign decision”
According to Reuters, President Putin referred to Article 4 of the North Korea-Russia treaty for two days, which states that ‘if one side is attacked and enters a state of war, the other side shall provide military and other assistance without delay.’ “This is our sovereign decision,” he said on the state-run Rossiya 1 broadcast on the 25th. “It is our problem whether we will use something, where and how we will need it, whether we will use it for some training or transfer of experience.”
There is an interpretation that President Putin mentioned the North Korea-Russia treaty from the 24th because he was waiting for the Russian House of Representatives (State Duma) to ratify the treaty that morning. Eom Ku-ho, a professor of Russian studies at Hanyang University’s Graduate School of International Studies, said, “Russia has said that military cooperation is a matter of sovereignty based on treaties,” and “It appears that it feels there is no need to deny it any longer.”
President Putin also said that North Korea-Russia cooperation is “the same as Ukraine pursuing its own security with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).” The logic is that just as Ukraine receives support from the West, Russia can also receive help from North Korea. When host Olga Skabeeva said, “There was an explosive reaction in Washington because of the president’s remarks,” President Putin joked, “I don’t know what kind of explosion it was, but the fragments didn’t go far.”
Hyun Seung-soo, vice president of the Korea Institute for National Unification, explained this by saying, “The logic is that the war in Ukraine is a ‘special military operation’ and cooperation with neighboring countries is a matter to be decided by oneself.” Deputy Director Hyun went on to point out, “If there is a possibility of accidental conflict or war on the Korean Peninsula, it becomes a justification for Russia to intervene.”
There is also an interpretation in domestic diplomatic circles that “Russia has also created a hole through which to escape.” A diplomatic source said, “In a situation where it is difficult to deny the deployment of troops, they mentioned ‘some training or transfer of experience’, leaving room for the possibility that the situation may not be serious.”
● “Russian military plane flies from North Korea to Moscow”
According to Ukrainian authorities, North Korean troops are deployed to the front line, Kursk Oblast, Russia, and could be sent into the war as early as the 27th. Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Agency (HUR) announced on the 25th that “ammunition, bedding, clothing, shoes, 50 meters of toilet paper, and 300 grams of soap were distributed to North Korean troops every month.”
According to HUR, about 12,000 North Korean soldiers are being trained at five military training grounds in eastern Russia, including Ussuriysk, Ulan-Ude, Ekaterinoslavska, Knyazevolkonskoye, and Sergeyevka. It is known that Russian Deputy Minister of Defense Yunusbek Yevkupor is in charge of North Korean military training. Deputy Minister Yevkupor is a ‘war veteran’ who led the First and Second Chechen Wars. Jack Watling, a senior researcher at the Royal Joint Military Institute (RUSI), commented to the Financial Times (FT), “The North Korean military may have quite good cohesion and morale.”
There are also concerns that the dispatch of North Korean troops could throw the international order into chaos. NYT reported on the 24th, “As the North Korea-Russia military alliance is strengthening, cooperation surrounding the North Korean nuclear issue is collapsing.” Robert Peters, a researcher at the conservative Heritage Foundation, expressed concern that “Russia could provide key technology to North Korea’s nuclear missile development.”
Meanwhile, according to British iNews, a military aircraft of a Russian special flight squadron capable of carrying up to 436 people departed North Korea’s Hwangju Air Force Base on the night of the 23rd and arrived in Moscow on the morning of the 24th. iNews reported, “Additional troops from North Korea may have been transferred.”
Paris = Correspondent Jo Eun-ah [email protected]
Reporter Kim Bora [email protected]
Reporter Ko Do-ye [email protected]