Berlin Six months after Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the Russian opposition is trying to give a voice to the displeasure of the population. The Russians reject the fighting, says Leonid Volkov – which is why Putin does not dare to call for general mobilization.
Alexei Navalny’s ex-campaign manager, who fled to Lithuania, is demanding new sanctions from the West. 6000 rich Russians should be specifically restricted. This could significantly increase the pressure on the Kremlin boss. At the same time, Volkov warns against demands for peace negotiations.
Leonid Ivanovich Volkov, you did not expect Russia’s attack on Ukraine, as you admit in your book “Putinland”. Why not, Russian troops had almost surrounded Ukraine?
Because that was completely illogical. We knew that a military victory over Ukraine is not possible. And that a war leads to an economic catastrophe. And that’s what happened. But I didn’t expect how wrong Putin was in assessing the situation, how far he had strayed from reality.
How do you explain that?
Especially during the two Corona years, he completely isolated himself and no longer spoke to normal people.
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It is said that Putin only received those closest to him. Who are these people?
Before the outbreak of the corona pandemic, he had a lot of contact with business people like Arkady Rotenberg, Gennady Timchenko and Yuri Kovalchuk, i.e. close confidants from his St. Petersburg days. The men who got rich during his presidency. They are involved in Putin’s heart project, the export of raw materials, and their billions come directly from the state coffers. But also with other followers he promoted to important positions, such as Central Bank boss Elwira Nabiullina, Sberbank boss German Gref and others. But most of all he met old generals. And during Corona only these.
Why only secret service and army generals came?
Because anyone he wanted to speak to had to quarantine for 14 days beforehand, had to isolate themselves completely. And that doesn’t work for normal people, they also have other things to do. That’s why he didn’t meet his Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin for a long time. Only the generals, they have plenty of time. And these are crazy people, they are seriously mentally ill and they infected Putin with this disease. The disease of Russian megalomania.
The war has been going on for half a year now. What’s next?
My hobby is chess, and white can win, black can win, or the game ends in a draw. Of course we don’t know how long the war will last. But after the past few months, two variants have been ruled out: a draw or a victory for Russia. Putin no longer has enough soldiers and weapons for that.
But he could mobilize in Russia, commit young men to the front.
No, he can’t. He doesn’t dare. He didn’t dare to do that in May and he’s not doing it now either. He understands very well that most Russians are against this war. There is no consent to this war. Thousands of soldiers refuse to go to Ukraine.
So Putin is afraid that if he were to order a general mobilization, the mood would change visibly in public?
Yes, exactly. And arming people who are against this war is a very stupid idea. So they try to mobilize volunteers. But that doesn’t work. Many say in polls that they would support the war. But when it comes to their husband or son, they flatly refuse. So Putin has no chance of winning the war, conquering Kyiv, Kharkiv or Odessa. And then there is still the possibility for him of a ceasefire with the freezing of the conflict. That is very dangerous.
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Why this? We are exactly at this point, where many in Europe are saying, how can we not continue this war, let’s negotiate with Putin.
That is very dangerous. Because a truce would not mean that the war would end. Rather, Putin will get the pause he wants, annex the conquered territories, rally his troops and start a new war, an even crueler one. And he will take revenge on everyone he blames for six months of humiliation.
How would that look?
He would intensify the repression in Russia, there would be a witch hunt for alleged traitors. Then stab-in-the-back legends would be built up, alleged culprits sought and found who were responsible for the Russian troops not invading Kyiv.
In Germany and elsewhere there are repeated calls to talk to Putin about a ceasefire. They are more afraid of a cold, gas-free winter than of a Russian annexation of large parts of Ukraine.
We have to explain the mechanisms: First, Putin tried to blackmail the world with hunger by blocking Ukraine’s grain. Now he is trying to blackmail Europe with frost and cold. For Ukraine, it is no longer just about peace, but about victory, the reconquest of the territories occupied by Russia. And to do that, it needs further western support with weapons and money. Because Putin’s war ruined the economy there.
And how ruined is the Russian economy by sanctions, how much longer can Putin keep the war going?
Putin has now understood that he cannot win militarily. That is why he wants to achieve a ceasefire by any means necessary. He is therefore now relying on blackmail with natural gas. That’s very dangerous. A truce necessarily lead to a new war.
But again the question: How much longer can Putin continue to wage war?
It’s a good question, because the Russian elite turns their backs on him. She is very unhappy with what is happening now. With the sanctions and travel bans for oligarchs and members of the government. Putin’s war has ruined their lifestyle: they can no longer ski in Courchevel or go to the beach in Rimini. And the military no longer understands him either, to whom he had promised to march into Kyiv within three days. None of that worked. The soldiers know they won’t go home heroes. Now many Russians come back from vacation and see how prices have gone up. Inflation is officially 16 percent, but in real terms it is 30 percent. Everything has gotten really expensive. The questions to Putin are now more pressing: why are we waging this war? Why are we spending so much money on rebuilding the conquered cities like Mariupol? What’s in it for us? The next few months will be very critical for him, he doesn’t have much time left.
What is the greatest danger for Putin?
It’s not the population yet – not yet. Right now it’s the elite, the rich around him. The most dangerous people for him are Sergei Shoigu and Sergei Lavrov.
Why then the defense and foreign ministers, who are so close to his side?
Yes, but they are still popular in Russia.
Even after the military embarrassment and foreign policy isolation?
The population, which is showered with propaganda from television every day, knows nothing about military defeats, about the high losses. And Shoigu and Lavrov are angry, they have young lovers with whom they can no longer fly private jets to expensive yachts in the West, as they did before the war, because of the sanctions, which they loved and did so often. They were happy with their lives and Putin destroyed it.
According to Volkov, Putin now surrounds himself almost exclusively with generals.
(Photo: dpa)
Couldn’t Putin publicly blame Shoigu for the catastrophic state of the Russian army and Lavrov for failing to prevent tough sanctions?
Then he would first have to admit that something is wrong. So far, TV viewers in Russia have been told: Everything is fine, we’re making good progress, no Russian soldiers are killed. Now even the dumbest of Putin supporters are beginning to ask themselves: If everything is going well, why isn’t the war over yet?
How are Western sanctions affecting the Russian population?
The sanctions are working, but slowly. Because Putin has been planning the war for years, he has built up large reserves. But they are beginning to have an effect: the Russian economy is coming under pressure, production is falling, he has to have tanks from the 1960s mobilized and built because modern parts are missing. The sanctions work, but they are not enough.
What else should the West do?
Significantly more sanctions must be imposed on the wealthy in Russia. Alexei Navalny’s fund has compiled a list of 6,000 wealthy Russians who have something to lose, who are on average 45 years old and who have life after Putin. Meeting these people would be very important. That would further increase resentment and pressure on Putin. That is why we are campaigning in the European Parliament, other parliaments and European politicians for creating such a list of sanctions.
Would a visa freeze for Russian travelers help?
No, there are no purely tourist visas for the Schengen area, only general short-term visas. And opponents of the regime use it to flee Russia. If there were purely tourist visas, one could only advocate a visa freeze. After all, why should Russians vacation in Europe while Ukrainians stay in their basements, afraid of Russian bombs?
Mr Volkov, thank you very much for the interview.
More: Three scenarios after six months of war: Ukraine’s victory is realistic – if the West wants it