Less than a week after the start of the Russia – Ukraine war, thinker and author Yuval Nova Harari says Vladimir Putin is on the brink of historic defeat. In an article in The Guardian, he explains why Putin is “likely to fail.” He says Putin’s claim that Ukraine is not a real country and that the Ukrainians are not a real people is completely false.
These are the reasons why Harari describes the current war as Putin’s failure.
It is a lie that the inhabitants of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Liv long for the rule of Moscow. Putin still stands by that lie. Ukraine is a country with a history of over a thousand years. At a time when Moscow was not even a village, Kyiv was a major metropolis. That is history. The Russian dictator is constantly lying about Ukraine in order to convince them too.
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Putin planned his invasion of Ukraine based on facts he knew. The first is that by force Ukraine is nothing compared to Russia. Another was that he knew that NATO would not send troops to help Ukraine. Putin reckoned that European countries, which began with Russia’s oil and gas and depended on Russia in many ways, would not reach out to help Ukraine. It was in the context of this calculation that Putin devised a plan to quickly invade and subdue Ukraine. Behead the Ukrainian government. Then, place a puppet rule in Kiev. Through this, what was his move was to overcome the sanctions from the Western countries.
But there is another fact that Russia and Putin did not know. That is what the United States faced in Iraq and the Soviet Union before in Afghanistan. It is much easier to invade and subdue a country than to maintain it. Putin knew he had the power to conquer Ukraine. But will the Ukrainian people accept the puppet rule of Moscow? Putin gambled that they would agree. After all, as he repeatedly explained to anyone who was willing to listen, he kept repeating the lie that ‘Ukraine is not a real nation, the Ukrainians are not a real people’. In 2014, the people of Crimea did not resist the Russian aggressors. But why should 2022 be different? What makes it different ?.
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With each passing day, it becomes clear that Putin’s gambling is failing. The Ukrainian people are resisting wholeheartedly. The whole world is gaining praise. Perhaps, they are fighting as if they are winning the war. There are a lot of dark days ahead of them. The Russians may still be able to conquer the whole of Ukraine. But for the war to be a complete victory, the Russians would have to stay in Ukraine. The Ukrainian people must accept them. However, this is unlikely to happen.
Every Russian tank destroyed in battle, every Russian soldier increases the courage of the Ukrainian resistance. That alone is enough to praise their struggle and courage. Every Ukrainian killed kills the Ukrainians’ hatred of the aggressors or the Russians. Hate is the ugliest of emotions. But for oppressed nations, hatred is a hidden treasure. Buried deep in the heart, it can be resisted for generations. This hatred can make a strong defense against the enemy. Their hatred may be resisted for generations.
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Putin needs bloody victory if he wants to create a Russian empire. Putin aimed for friendly subjugation. That would lead to a relatively non-hostile occupation. However, it has already been disconnected. With more and more Ukrainian bloodshed, it is being decided that Putin’s dream will never come true. In Ukraine, every drop of blood spilled by the Russian military will be an obstacle to Putin’s dream. The death certificate of the Russian Empire will not be the name of Mikhail Gorbachev, it will be Putin’s. Gorbachev saw the Russians and the Ukrainians as brothers. The two were friends when he left. Putin turned them into enemies. Putin has turned them into two warring nations.
Nations are ultimately tied to stories. With each passing day, the Ukrainians add more and more stories. They are getting new stories not only in the dark days to come, but in the coming decades and generations. Stories that will be told to future generations about their great country and its struggle. There are so many stories of the president refusing to flee the capital, telling the U.S. he wanted ammunition, not a ride, and civilians smashed by a Russian tank petrol bomb. Countries are born out of these. Sometimes, more than a thousand tanks can be such powerful stories.
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Putin, the Russian dictator, knows this better than anyone. As a child, he grew up hearing stories about German atrocities and Russian bravery in the Leningrad siege. Growing up listening to the Soviet heroism that captured the Nazi advance in Leningrad, Putin today makes up similar stories. Today, Putin is disguising himself as Hitler.
Stories of Ukrainian bravery give assurance not only to Ukrainians but to people around the world. They are giving courage to the world itself. Unfortunately, this war is likely to last a long time. In different forms it can persist for years. Over the past few days, the world has come to realize that Ukraine is a real nation, and that the Ukrainians are a real people, and they certainly do not want to live under a new Russian empire. The key question that remains open is how long this message will take to penetrate the Kremlin’s thick walls. When will this answer reach the ears of Russia, which has questioned its very existence?