What the Russians have called a “reduction of activity in the Kiev and Chernihiv area” appears from the camp as a pause to reorganize the army’s battalions. Meanwhile, Putin uses the Grozny method. Signal: NATO will supply artillery and armored vehicles (but not tanks) to Kiev
Perhaps it is not so true that Vladimir Putin miscalculatedspeculated the conservative commentator of the New York Times
Bret Stephens. What the Russians have called a “reduction of activity in the Kiev and Chernihiv area”, appears increasingly evident from the camp as a break necessary to reorganize the units deployed in the north of Ukraine – exhausted by a month of fighting and the bloody ambushes of the resistance – accompanied by bombs and long-range missiles, which protect the Moscow army from losses. It is a classic Russian Army scheme, adopted with devastating violence in Grozny and which it is repeating now in Ukraine, indiscriminately bombing military and civilian targets to terrorize the population and force the Kiev government’s hand at the negotiating table. When they say that Putin cannot get a military victory in Ukraine, explains Stephens, analysts probably mean in reality that it cannot achieve a “clean” victory: By striking from afar, however, the Russians can go much longer than the Ukrainians and achieve better results.
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in the meantime the troops catch their breath, Moscow can start the rotation of the elements and the Tsar – news expected – has signed the decree for the spring conscription, when citizens between 18 and 27 years old will be called to arms: about 134 thousand people who, had assured the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, should not, however, be sent in Ukraine. Analysts have their binoculars aimed to see if this is the case. In parallel, the Russian General Staff is studying what went wrong on the battlefield, to correct the well-known logistical errors that bogged down the columns at the beginning of the offensive. In addition to the strength of the Army, the first month of fighting has in fact highlighted the limits of the Russian armywhich – after seeing Plan A, or the surrender of Zelensky and Ukraine in 48 hours, fade – had difficulty supplying the battalions with food and fuel.
Even because Ukraine is the largest country in Europe and the Russians, who usually move troops by train, only managed to get their hands on the rail network in the south, in Kherson and Melitopol, but not in the Chernihiv area, near the border, where they could have delivered supplies. Michael Kofman, CNA expert on Russia, speaks of “the tyranny of distance”: forced to avoid the quagmire of the fields, where the vehicles were blocked, the Russians moved the columns along the narrow Ukrainian roads, creating the famous traffic jam along about sixty kilometers at the gates of Kiev and becoming easy prey of Ukrainian ambushes. Although another «technician», Colonel Alex Vershinin, speculated about the Washington Post that in reality the “procession” was not stalled, but has deliberately slowed down, transforming itself into a sort of single supply base, placed following the road axis. An alternative – is his thesis – to the creation of a series of logistic outposts: this it would work in case of a lightning operation and instead it became a knot.
Also because, as an analysis and a graph of the Washington Post, the Russian battalions are massive. The General Staff has sent about 150,000 men to Ukraine, but troops and soldiers need the support of mechanics, doctors, engineers, truck drivers, cooks and so on. On average, about 200 kilos of supplies per day are needed for each soldier in the Russian army, including food, fuel, ammunition and medical support. Thus the Post studied the composition of a tactical battalion, the Btg: besides the soldiers – between 700 and 900 as a rule – they have 10 tanks, 6 armored vehicles with mortars, 40 armored vehicles for infantry, between 12 and 20 artillery vehicles which include cannons and rocket launchers, 10 air defense systems, and then 3 trucks for food, 5 for water, 2- 5 trucks with medical supplies, 2 mobile kitchens and 10-12 petrol tankers, which are enough for two days. Finally, there are 5 vehicles for engineers and equipment, 5 for drones, 2 with systems to neutralize the radars and two means to recover those in need.
Then there is a more specific aspect. Former American general Mark Hertling, a tanker, explained on Twitter the conditions of “life” (and death) aboard a tank. He himself had the opportunity to inspect a Russian T80: visibility from the inside is reduced, the 3-man crew struggles to see the opposing infantry, fearsome if equipped with missile systems. The ammunition is in the back, with no bulkhead separating it from the staff: if the tank is hit at the first explosion, a second devastating one follows and it is complex to launch outside. The armor is lighter on the top, e this explains the successes of the Javelin missile that swoops down on the target. According to some reconstructions, the Army lost dozens of T80s in the battle of Trostanyets.
Even worse – he said – the armored vehicles present in large numbers in the formations can catch fire after being hit by bullets even not of large caliber. These negative characteristics have emerged in several episodes documented by the videos (net of propaganda). As has now been widely reported, the General Staff underestimated the enemy and the impact of the anti-tanks. In addition to the American Javelin, the British Nlaw, the German Panzerfaust, the Swedish At4 are playing a role and the forthcoming dispatch by Germany of the Matador has been announced, with which it is possible to engage a vehicle at shorter distances. The “rocket” needs a certain number of meters before being activated in order to protect the shooter in case of failure. An important aspect in the type of confrontation taking place, often in urban areas.
The great use of these weapons leads to a double crossroads. The first. Producers-suppliers must be able to answer the demand, Kiev insists on large shipments while according to some observers the stocks are not infinite. The second, growing. To guarantee Zelensky the arsenal he does not have today, or more important means to solidify its positions and drive away the invader. Gradually – accompanied by a narrative in this sense – Washington seems to pass from no to yes, an idea also shared by Great Britain. On Thursday evening, London announced that the allies are ready to send armored vehicles, other drones, heavy artillery, ammunition but not the tanks urgently urged by the Ukrainian president. The 35 donor countries will fine-tune the program through consultations. It is an important signal linked to what is happening on the ground and further initiatives cannot be excluded.
March 31, 2022 (change March 31, 2022 | 20:37)
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