Faced with the escalation of the conflict, crystallized by the Ukrainian bombings in the night between Monday and Tuesday on Russian soil, Vladimir Putin signed a decree yesterday, 19 November 2024, which allows for a wider use of nuclear weapons. With this signature, which comes on the thousandth day of the conflict and a few months after the announcement of a revision of the Russian nuclear doctrine, Moscow includes the launch of ballistic missiles against Russia among “the conditions that justify the use of nuclear weapons”.
The Kremlin accused Ukraine of firing six long-range American ATACMS missiles on the night of Monday to Tuesday, November 19, against a military site in the Russian border region of Bryansk. “At 3:25 the enemy hit a site in the Bryansk region” with “ATACMS tactical missiles,” according to a statement from the Ministry of Defense. Five missiles were destroyed and another was damaged by anti-aircraft defense.
“Its fragments fell on the technical area of a military site in the Bryansk region, causing a fire that was quickly put out,” adds the ministry, specifying that these attacks caused no casualties.
“Direct involvement” of NATO and the USA in the conflict
These attacks come after the alleged green light given by Washington to Ukraine to hit Russian territory with long-range American missiles. The information, given by the New York Times citing anonymous officials, has not been officially confirmed.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also reacted cautiously to this announcement. “Many media reports that we have received authorization to take appropriate measures (…) But strikes are not done in words. Things like that are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves,” he said.
The first reaction was communicated by the voice of the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov. He estimated on Monday that if this authorization were proven, it would lead to “a fundamentally new situation in terms of US involvement in this conflict.” “The coordinates of the targets are not provided by the Ukrainian army, but by specialists from these Western countries. This fundamentally changes the nature of their involvement,” he explained.
Moscow says it is “evident that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to take measures to continue adding fuel to the fire and provoking a further increase in tensions”, despite warnings issued in September by Vladimir Putin against such actions which “would mean nothing ”. less than the direct involvement of NATO countries in the war in Ukraine”.
Revised doctrine, Atacms already used according to Mosca
At the time, Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, announced a revision of nuclear doctrine. At the end of September, Vladimir Putin warned that his country could resort to nuclear weapons in the event of a “massive launch” of air strikes against Russia. He made it clear that any attack carried out by a non-nuclear country, such as Ukraine, but supported by a nuclear-armed power, such as the United States, could be considered “joint” aggression, which could justify the use of the weapons nuclear.
Is it done now? On Tuesday, on the thousandth day of the Ukrainian conflict, Vladimir Putin signed this decree which expands the possibilities of using nuclear weapons. “Among the conditions that justify the use of nuclear weapons is the launch of ballistic missiles against Russia,” the text explains. “It was necessary to adapt our foundations to the current situation,” continues Dmitri Peskov.
The decree also paves the way for the use of nuclear energy in the event that “territory and resources are made available for aggression against Russia.”
Since the beginning of the conflict in February 2022 and in the face of Western decisions in favor of Kiev, such as financial aid, the sending of heavy artillery to the front and then the supply of fighter planes to the Ukrainian army capable of hitting targets on the Russian territory, Vladimir Putin has constantly threatened to use nuclear weapons.
This Wednesday China called for “calm” and “moderation”. “Under the current circumstances, all sides should maintain calm and exercise restraint, working together through dialogue and consultation to ease tensions,” said Lin Jian, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry.
Interview between Time.news Editor and Security Analyst Dr. Elena Mirov
Editor: Welcome, Dr. Mirov! Thank you for joining us today to discuss the escalating situation between Ukraine and Russia and the implications of President Putin’s recent decree regarding nuclear weapons usage. It’s certainly a pivotal moment as we mark the thousandth day of this conflict.
Dr. Mirov: Thank you for having me. Indeed, this is a significant juncture in the conflict, and the implications of these events could be profound.
Editor: Let’s start with the recent missile attacks by Ukraine on Russian territory. What are the potential consequences of these actions, not just for Ukraine and Russia, but for NATO and global security?
Dr. Mirov: The attacks using ATACMS missiles are particularly notable because they indicate a shift in Ukraine’s operational strategy, likely influenced by the support they’re receiving from Western allies. The Kremlin’s assertion that these military strikes could signify direct NATO involvement brings a new layer of complexity. If Moscow interprets these actions as joint aggression, it significantly raises the risks of broader military engagement, potentially drawing NATO in more directly.
Editor: Speaking of NATO involvement, President Putin’s recent decree expands the conditions under which Russia might use nuclear weapons. How does this revised nuclear doctrine impact the deterrence landscape in Europe?
Dr. Mirov: Putin’s decree signals a more aggressive stance. By justifying nuclear weapons’ use against perceived provocations, even from non-nuclear states like Ukraine, the deterrent effect of nuclear weapons becomes more precarious. It raises the stakes significantly, not only for Ukraine but for NATO, as well. Any miscalculation could spiral out of control, very quickly.
Editor: You mentioned miscalculation, which has been a recurring theme in discussions about nuclear strategies. Given that the Kremlin has accused the U.S. of exacerbating tensions, how should Western allies navigate this situation?
Dr. Mirov: Western allies need to tread carefully. It’s critical to provide support to Ukraine while also ensuring that signals sent to Moscow do not provoke a military escalation. Clear communication is essential. The West should affirm its support for Ukraine while simultaneously emphasizing its commitment to avoiding a nuclear conflict.
Editor: We’ve seen various responses from leaders, including Ukraine’s President Zelensky, who has taken a cautious approach. How do you assess the balance of military and diplomatic strategies from Kyiv’s perspective?
Dr. Mirov: Zelensky’s cautious tone reflects a very pragmatic understanding of their position. Although military actions are essential for Ukraine’s sovereignty, they also need to maintain international support without further provoking Russia. The messaging about restraint, combined with effective military operations, is crucial for Ukraine to sustain its narrative and legitimacy in this conflict.
Editor: Before we conclude, what do you foresee as the potential next steps? Could we see a shift in the dynamics of international support for Ukraine or increased aggressiveness from Russia?
Dr. Mirov: The situation is fluid. If Russia perceives that it is losing ground or that NATO’s involvement is deepening, we may see an increased aggressiveness, both in conventional and nuclear posturing. Conversely, should the West continue to support Ukraine robustly without crossing critical thresholds that Russia deems unacceptable, this could lead to a prolonged stalemate. We must watch for responses from both sides; any provocations or escalations could trigger reactions that might lead us down a dangerous path.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Mirov, for shedding light on this complex issue. Your insights are invaluable as we continue to monitor these developments.
Dr. Mirov: Thank you for the opportunity to discuss this urgent topic. It’s crucial we keep engaged in these conversations as events unfold.