Vladimir Putin (photo by shutterstock)
Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrates his 70th birthday today, October 7. The personal holiday comes at a time when the Russian leader is experiencing a setback in his global standing following this year’s invasion of Ukraine, which has so far not ended as he had planned.
After more than two decades in power, Putin took perhaps the most dramatic decision of his life. “The situation, as far as I know, has changed radically,” said Lev Gudkov, a sociologist with an independent Russian agency, suggesting that the military mobilization Putin announced on September 21 may have changed the atmosphere irreversibly.
“Mobility affects everyone… the declaration of mobilization fundamentally changed the situation – the war has reached the citizens of Russia,” he said.
More in-
The invasion of Ukraine has met with unexpectedly strong resistance from the Ukrainian people, as powerfully demonstrated last month when a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region sent Russian forces back and prompted Putin to announce a mobilization after months of war.
The Kremlin’s war has also provoked a sharp response from the West, which has imposed a heavy mass of sanctions against Russia and provided extensive aid to Ukraine worth billions of dollars. Sweden and Finland, after decades on the fringes of NATO, have officially left their membership in the transatlantic alliance.
Since the Cold War, Russia has not, if at all, been so isolated and alienated from the international community.
Like an Arab princess, only in Russian
Despite everything, Russia is still one of the world’s largest sources of gas, oil, cobalt and other important natural resources. Europe’s gas crisis will testify to this.
Russia’s economy is damaged, although less than expected. The war in Ukraine brought Russia’s economy back to 2018, according to the economic newspaper Bloomberg. That’s because Russia’s GDP is likely to fall 4.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022 — the first contraction in a year, according to 12 analysts polled by Bloomberg.
The April to June period marked the first full quarter since Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine. The Central Bank of Russia estimated that the Russian economy shrank by 4.3% in the second quarter of the year.
Russia’s economy is based on its essential natural resources, but if Putin keeps banging his head against the wall against the rest of the world, it will be harder for him to sell them. The world has drawn conclusions from the war and the countries will strive more to prepare themselves for energy independence.
“No rage, no mass demonstrations”
Inside the house it is understood that Putin is still the undisputed leader, and the Russian people for the most part are still unmoved by what is happening in Ukraine.
“Russia’s criminal war in Ukraine highlighted such features of Russian society that even notorious Russophobes did not claim,” wrote Estonian MP Mikhail Lutman in an article for RFE/RL’s Russian service. “How did Russian society react? It didn’t happen. Or barely,” he wrote. “No outrage, no mass demonstrations.”
Although polls in Russia are very limited and should be interpreted with caution, the people’s “approval” rating of Putin has been above 80 percent for most of 2022. In August, the figure was 83 percent.
“After the war in Ukraine started, all the indicators [האישורים] came up,” Gudkov said. “People felt safe, experienced a sense of pride in the display of strength and power as a military power.” But in September, Putin’s approval rating dropped to 77 percent.
Most Russians still trust Putin, but the military and mobilization failures, in particular, are having an impact, Gudkov stressed. “After the mass recruitment, I think the situation will change quickly,” he said.
“Feeling of Hopelessness”
Certainly, going public against Putin’s government is a revolutionary psychological step for most Russians. In the early years of his rule, Putin used the country’s massive propaganda machinery to promote values of a strong, centralized government and a “dictatorship of law” while demonizing the chaotic 1990s, where democracy, media freedom and self-determination were key words.
As mentioned, protesting is still dangerous, but the political isolation and the drop in morale threaten the tough leader more than ever. Greater and stronger leaders than him throughout history have already fallen. Will he manage to succeed another decade in stability in his chair? time will tell.
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