Putin wants Ukraine, the West gives him what he wants

by time news

A large gathering of Russian army forces along the border with Ukraine fuels speculation about an imminent invasion. Leaders in the West have warned Russian President Putin of military action, but the West is now seen as divided, weak and helpless, especially after the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan.

An invasion of Ukraine, if it occurs, will significantly expand Russia’s spheres of influence along its western border and pave the way for a renewed threat to Eastern European and Baltic states.

On December 3, the Washington Post reported on a U.S. intelligence document that Russia is planning a multi-frontal offensive in the coming months that will include about 200,000 troops. Satellite photos attached to the document showed Russian forces gathering at four points near the border, a total of about 70,000 soldiers divided into fifty assault units that have been gathered at the border since September. A source in the Biden administration was quoted in the article as saying:

“The Russians plan to launch an offensive against Ukraine in early 2022, in a force twice as large as we saw in the large military exercise they conducted in the spring. The plan includes the recruitment of a hundred battalions along with armored forces and artillery.”

The US intelligence document was leaked on the same day that Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Roznikov said that Russia is gathering one hundred thousand troops at the border and is ready to invade in January. Two days earlier, US Secretary of State Blinken had discussed the situation in Ukraine with his European counterparts at the NATO summit in Latvia. Referring to a possible military deterioration, he said:

“We do not know whether President Putin made the decision to invade. We do know that he is organizing the ability to do so in a short time if he really wants to invade and we must prepare for all the scenarios. We made it clear to the Kremlin that the United States will respond “

The next day, Blinken met in Stockholm with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, on the sidelines of the OSCE Foreign Ministers’ Summit for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Blinkan demanded that Russia withdraw its forces from the Ukrainian border, while Lavrov evaded warming that his country saw NATO enlargement east as a “fundamental” security threat. The Reds “in Ukraine.

In this context, it should be noted that Ukraine is not an official member of the NATO alliance, which for its part considers Ukraine a “partner” and nothing more. In the Russian invasion of 2014, NATO members did not come to Ukraine’s defense, Possible will be limited to economic sanctions only:

“There will be a heavy price to pay if Russia tries again to use force against an independent and sovereign state. In the past, we have demonstrated our ability to take costly economic and policy actions.”

Stoltenberg also addressed the possibility of Ukraine officially joining NATO, a move that is also at the heart of tensions with Russia:

“Only Ukraine and NATO member states will decide whether Ukraine is willing to join. Russia has no veto on the matter and there is no statement. It also has no right to expand its sphere of influence in an attempt to take over its neighbor. “

On December 3, U.S. President Joe Biden said his administration “is preparing a comprehensive and significant series of measures that will make it very difficult for Mr. Putin to do what we fear he is about to do.” A White House spokesman said Washington was “concerned. “The Biden administration is very consistent in its message to Russia: the United States is not looking for conflict, and the best way to avoid a crisis is through diplomacy and reassurance,” he said.

In London, the Financial Times reported that European officials were “surprised” by the conclusive conclusions in the US intelligence report, adding that day-trippers from the continent and the US have been engaged in joint situation assessments in recent weeks. According to the report, the Biden administration is expected to soon announce “consequences” for the Russian invasion, as part of a diplomatic effort to deter Putin.

So what does Russia want?

Commentators around the world are divided over Putin’s motive. Some believe the Russian president is using the Ukraine issue as part of an attempt to divert public attention from the economic crisis and the controversy surrounding the treatment of the corona plague. Others argue that Putin is determined to regain destructive control over Ukraine and other companies in the former Soviet Union. Max Sedon, Financial Times’ envoy to Moscow, wrote:

“Putin’s desire to ward off Western influence on Ukraine is based on a belief that it is an integral part of the ‘Russian world’ – Moscow’s spheres of influence rooted in tsarist and Soviet times. Putin described the collapse of the USSR that separated millions of families on both sides of the border The Greatest Political Disaster of the 20th Century… After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, it compared the peninsula where Christianity the First, Prince of Kiev, was baptized to the “Temple Mount of Russia” – a statement with no theological basis but one that puts Putin as the Russian shield As they”.

In July, Putin published a lengthy article entitled “The Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” in which he wrote that he was convinced that “true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only through cooperation with Russia.” He added that he would never allow Ukraine to become “anti-Russian”.

Apparently, Putin is referring in these words to laws that the Ukrainian government promoted in 2019 in which it was determined that Ukrainian is the official language in the country and a restriction was imposed on the use of the Russian language. Political commentator Tatiana Stanvia said in this context:

“According to Putin, the Ukrainian people are actually united with the people of Russia, so they are supposed to support integration. But because the country is under Western influence, those Ukrainians have become hostages in the geopolitical game. If only the Americans leave there will be one united and wonderful country, At least Putin thinks “

Pablo Klimikin, former Foreign Minister of Ukraine, added:

“Putin feels that his mission is to establish a new kind of empire. It is a thought that is planted deep in his head. As long as Ukraine is a separate and successful country, it is very detrimental to Russian mythology. This is an illogical position because in practice the two peoples have a completely different set of values. “

Ukrainian MP Alexei Gonchenko referred to a column published by Putin and said:

“He claims to have written about the past and history, but in practice he is talking about the future. Ukraine is the key to Putin’s dream of a strong and great Russia. He is aware that without Ukraine this dream is impossible. This is not a province or region. “Putin makes it very clear that his goal is to keep Ukraine under Russian influence and prevent its integration into Western Europe.”

Weakness of the West and the energy crisis

It seems though that Vladimir Putin draws encouragement from the diagnosis that the West will do nothing to stop, other than a weak public protest.

In Europe, the policies it has pursued in recent decades have made Germany the entire EU dependent on Russia for energy supply. In the event that it is decided to impose Western sanctions on Russia that threaten to continue Putin’s rule, he can simply stop gas shipments to Europe. Such a move would soon bring the union to its knees, and the sanctions would likely be lifted soon.

Putin sees the current US administration similarly as well. In July, for example, the White House suddenly became a long-standing and cross-party policy when it reached an agreement with Chancellor Merkel to allow the completion of the controversial gas pipeline connecting Russia and Germany.

The agreement that is supposed to double the natural gas shipments from Russia to Germany has angered many of the leaders in Europe. They argued that it would in fact give Russia a choking grip on the gas supply to the continent, leading to a state of blackmail on the part of Moscow. In the past, Presidents Obama and Trump have opposed completing the pipeline for precisely these reasons. The Trump administration in particular has expressed a critical stance on Germany enjoying an American military umbrella while enriching Russia’s coffers by billions.

Just one day before the announcement of the Biden-Merkel agreement, a State Department spokesman described the gas pipeline as “a Kremlin geopolitical project aimed at expanding Russia’s influence on Europe’s energy resources and thus bypassing Ukraine.” A White House spokeswoman also said in the past that the Biden administration “continues to believe that the Nordterserem 2 pipeline is a bad deal for Europe.”

So far Biden and his men have not provided explanations for the sudden change of position, nor for the question of how he will advance the strategic interests of the US or Europe. According to various reports, the White House has urged Ukraine not to publicly criticize the agreement, With US congressmen, White House officials warned Ukraine that public opposition to the gas pipeline would “hurt Washington-Kiev relations.”

A classified German government document leaked to Axios in November showed that the Germans had asked the US Congress to refrain from imposing sanctions on the pipeline project. Such a move, the document said, would “weaken the credibility of the US administration” and “harm the united Western position” towards Russia. The document further claims that the pipeline “does not pose a threat” to Ukraine.

Commentators on both sides of the ocean have raised a number of points regarding the completion of the pipeline project. It will weaken America and strengthen Russian influence in Europe; Will increase disputes between Eastern and Western European countries; Will push some eastern countries closer to China; Prevent Ukraine from charging the transit fee for existing pipelines passing through its territory and impair its ability to withstand Russian aggression; It will allow Putin to blackmail Germany and the European Union at will with the threat of stopping gas shipments.

The peace that failed

Russia and Ukraine have been in armed conflict since February 2014, when Russia invaded the Crimean peninsula and annexed it. Subsequently, Russian forces occupied most of the Donbas industrial zone in eastern Ukraine. Various reports have also accused Russia of funding and arming an attempted separatist uprising in Ukrainian territory, and the entire conflict has claimed some 14,000 victims to date, alongside millions displaced from their homes.

In September 2014, the two countries signed a peace plan and an end to the conflict in eastern Ukraine (Minsk Protocol), which they helped formulate in some European countries. The first agreement did not stop the Donbass warfare, and another agreement was signed in February 2015 mediated by Germany and France. The clauses of this agreement also did not materialize in practice, with each of the parties accusing his opponent of violating the understandings.

During the current year, Russia has twice made a massive force movement move towards the Ukrainian border. The first time was in May, when one hundred thousand Russian soldiers gathered near the Crimea. In September, Russia deployed 200,000 troops in Belarus, which shares a long border with Ukraine. Military commentators have described these moves as a kind of rehearsal for a full Russian invasion.

On December 2, during their meeting in Stockholm, US Secretary of State Blinken called on his Russian counterpart to return to the negotiating table with Ukraine and renegotiate European-mediated agreements. Russian Minister Lavrov has demanded that the United States create an alternative channel of communication directly with the Kremlin.

Some commentators believe that the movement of Russian forces on the border is intended, at least in part, to force direct talks between Moscow and Washington. The Politico correspondent in Brussels claims that such a communication channel would undermine previous agreements between Russia and Ukraine, and would further escalate Western divisions and disputes between Europe and the US.

In a recent column, Washington Post commentator David Ignatius revealed that such a media channel may already exist and operate. The Biden administration, he wrote, “signaled its support for a diplomatic agreement on the Ukraine issue, which would give Putin the most he wanted.”

Soren Keren is a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute. A full version of the article was first published on the Gatesstone Institute website.


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