2024-03-18 16:18:18
Ram Mandir
Temple politics had lost its luster until Modi brought it front and center through a grand ceremony in January. This has broken the boat of BJP’s Hindutva. BJP’s politics is governed by other similar ‘reasons’ also. In such a situation, the Citizenship Amendment Act along with the temple, resumption of puja inside Gyanvapi, abolition of special status of Jammu and Kashmir, general noise about ‘cultural revival’… all this and much more is for BJP this time. Giving us a chance to make a solid pitch for the elections. BJP hopes that Hindu outreach will outweigh the opposition’s caste census dramas. Ram temple also enhances Modi’s personal credibility.
Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA)
CAA rules have been notified. Politics has started on this, but what impact will it have on elections outside the border areas of Bengal and parts of Assam? That this will be played out in Bengal is evident from Mamata’s reach out to the Matuas, a Dalit community that has benefited from the CAA. In Assam, Bengali speaking people will be happy, Assamese speaking people will be angry. Elsewhere, the impact of the CAA will depend on how much the BJP can use it to promote Hindu ‘sentiment’. At the same time, the opposition can use it to talk about polarization. The opposition’s work is difficult.
ED-CBI
Last but not least – agencies. Investigating agencies never paid this much attention in political discussions. BJP says that most of the opposition leaders are corrupt and hence it is right that they are under the ambit of CBI/ED. The opposition says that this is BJP’s politics of revenge. It also says that leaders who change their allegiance to BJP are eliminated. BJP says take a look at all the cash and valuables found in the raids on opposition leaders. What impact this will have in the assembly elections also depends on whom you talk to. Therefore, it is difficult to estimate the impact on the Lok Sabha elections. But it is expected that there will be rhetoric from both sides, which will probably benefit Modi.
coalition politics
PM Modi has learned from the mistakes of others. In 2004, Vajpayee alienated DMK and Paswan and paid the price for it. Modi, despite being the favorite in 2024 and despite all the visible problems of the Indian alliance, is trying to bring back the estranged NDA allies, from Nitish to Naidu. He has also embraced old enemies like Janata Dal. Talks with BJD seem to be still going on. Despite the distribution of seats in Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Maharashtra, the Indian alliance looks disorganized.
Dearness
When it comes to inflation, Modi is more cautious than most of his predecessors. They kept retail fuel prices stable for months, then reduced prices three days ago. Repeatedly cut the prices of LPG. Banned food exports more than once. Gave free food grains to 80 crore Indians. He did not care for the criticism of economists. Some form of food inflation remains, but, barring a few shocks, it is unlikely to be a major national factor that will play a role for the opposition. One smart thing Modi did was to keep pandemic deficit financing moderate, while avoiding demand-pull inflation.
Unemployment
Potentially, the opposition’s most powerful economic weapon. There is a job problem. Even Indian government data shows that many ’employed’ Indians are either self-employed or in unpaid, domestic employment. Private data paints a grim picture. The blind race for a few government jobs, the race to find low/medium skill jobs abroad, the increasing capital intensity of manufacturing, which means fewer jobs per unit of investment, the skill shortage that makes many Indians unfit for various jobs – Those are all issues. But jobs in themselves have never been a major determining factor in Indian elections.
Stability
The prominence of this factor keeps coming and going. After the breakup of the Janata Party, Indira Gandhi rode on it, and after her assassination, Rajiv Gandhi also rode on it. Unstable and/or chaotic coalitions then ran India. It ended with Manmohan Singh’s statement about ‘compulsions of the alliance’. Modi rode on stability in 2014 and 2019. In 2024, he will tell voters that a strong India needs a stable government. The external challenges are too much for a ‘ragtag’ or disorganized government to handle. The opposition will say that ‘strong’ means ‘authoritarian’ and ‘disempowerment’ of certain classes, regions.
social welfare
Everyone is taking advantage of it. Now the question is which party will get the support of voters where? Modi has mastered this. Now he has ‘guaranteed welfare’. BJP’s caste arithmetic affects its critics also. In terms of welfare, he has so far outperformed the Congress and regional parties in most places. It is not that the latter is not keeping promises. Expect both sides to find flaws in each other’s benefit plans. With so much on offer, wellness may be a necessary but not sufficient condition to win. This is where caste comes in. BJP has made slicing and dicing a fine art. The opposition still has a lot to do.
GDP growth
Economists always expect GDP figures to influence voting decisions. But it is lived experience, not blanket statistics, that determine how voters assess the government’s handling of the economy. Therefore, the furious debate among economists about the GDP numbers matters much less in the Modi government. However, there are two things here, first, can the government add to Modi’s clear and already existing appeal and turn these numbers into a more popular message? Second, how local experiences are partly influenced by welfare transfers. They are making the voters feel. Yet the message will seem more convincing to the middle class, who have benefited more than the majority and who have invested in the markets.
threat to the world
It is not just about the Indian government, how its policies have further enhanced India’s prestige globally. Many foreign pundits say similar things, albeit with more help from questions. Modi’s energetic and shrewd diplomacy – buying Russian crude, ignoring Western opposition, is a good example. Solid economic figures make the BJP’s pitch on ’emerging’ India, which the opposition will find difficult to question. But perhaps what’s been missing so far is a wave of popular resolution that turns voters’ perceptions on such things into votes. Of course, Modi will work to address this.