2024-08-29 22:00:10
The end of the year promises to be tense on the raw cashew nut market: due to the poor 2024 harvest, the West African markets are almost all sold already, and this could prevent supplies to Vietnam.
For several weeks, red lights have begun to flash in Vietnam: there are estimates, 300,000 tons of raw fruits are left, which is not enough to supply local factories for a month.
Until July, the world leader trades in processed nuts, that is to say cashew kernels, generally draws on its local production and, if necessary, on Cambodia’s harvest. But traditionally, from July, the Vietnam need the West African nut, just like thoseIndeNumber two is the change.
At the end of September, Vietnamese manufacturers should also find African volumes thanks to volumes that have already arrived in Asia or that are being shipped.
End of West African markets
« But the situation can get complicated in the last quarter », warns Pierre Ricau, analyst for the N’Kalô project. Because with a deficit of 500 to 600,000 tons, from the production of 3 million tons last year, West Africa will not have much to offer this time.
Some exporters have Ghanaof Togo or even Nigeria has been struggling since this summer to meet the orders placed, the harvest is not enough. Inside Ivory Coastworld leading developer, revenue on export raw fruit decided by authorities in May also prevents sellers from honoring orders from their Vietnamese and Indian buyers.
Read againIvory Coast encourages local production of cashew nuts
Price up 30%
Production from East Africa, which will be marketed in October, will certainly not be able to fill the gap. So we may have to wait until February 2025 and the arrival of new harvests from the Northern Hemisphere to see the revival of the sector.
In the meantime, we are going directly to the unsupplied product which is already weighing on the prices. Between May and June, they went up by 30% – for the indication of the grade of cashew kernel WW320 – and can be brought forward if the demand from American, European or Chinese buyers remains high as at the beginning of the year.
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