In 2023, on average, 10% fewer children were born in the European Union (EU) than in 2021, but with a 16.82% drop, Latvia ranks fifth in the EU in terms of the decrease in the number of newborns.
Restrictions change habits
More than once, when announcing the restrictions of the Covid-19 pandemic across the EU, the fact that this time will change people’s habits was mentioned, and the change in habits was confirmed in many areas. For example, Internet trade flourished, a parcel network developed, people visited stores less, because it was not recommended to go to them, masks had to be worn and other restrictions had to be observed. The culture of education changed – many more people were introduced to the possibility of teaching their children remotely. And even now, when Covid-19 is only talked about in passing, even though the incidence is no less than in March 2020, people choose distance education, home education much more often than before. Education, by the way, is the first indicator that not all changes in habits have been positive, as the quality of education in general deteriorated, and it is not yet clear whether it will be possible to recover the level of 2019. Companies have comments about the graduates of 2022 – they are silent, have lost communication skills, lack practical skills – these are the conclusions about children who managed to enjoy distance learning during the last two years of high school or elementary school.
On the other hand, the assessment of remote work opportunities has not yet been fully analyzed. It is likely that a full evaluation of it will follow after some time. It seems that the companies that noticed installing computer workstations in the employees’ homes are the winners, because renting offices will cost less in the long term and it is unlikely that any of these companies will return to the old order, and yet – have any of the companies invested in employee socialization opportunities? Does anyone care that women and men of childbearing age don’t leave the apartment for weeks and order food online? I know industries where such workers have appeared. Of course, there are no data and studies on how many there are and what they do after working hours. We can only guess that remote work has had consequences not only in working relationships, but also in private communication, and perhaps these consequences are negative. In the case of a large population, they will not be noticed by the old European countries, but the influence is noticeable in Latvia.
Practical implications
The number of newborns is almost one-fifth less than in 2021, so in 2028, when those born in 2023 will reach the mandatory kindergarten attendance age, 17% fewer kindergartens will be needed. In another couple of years it will apply to all first grades and in another few years we will be talking about closing schools. In 2041, there will be 17% fewer workers and students in the labor market and universities, but in another five years there will certainly be a shortage of workers in many sectors.
As for the overall picture, the nation will not have died out yet, and the strong in spirit will be able to call it natural selection, however, at the national level, the consequences will be quite practical. A country is essentially an infrastructure that its citizens need, not robots and artificial intelligence. The comment is not without basis. Robots that will replace humans can do without a state.
Namely, by closing schools, kindergartens and other institutions, we will get an empty population map of the country. The need for some road, railway and police officers will disappear. Or, on the other hand, there simply won’t be any money to maintain these people and infrastructure. In cities, streets will have to be built narrower and safety lanes around water pipes will shrink. The last fact is definitely from the series of positive consequences. More and more world vagabonds will roam the borders of countries, and sometime in the distant future there will be no resources to catch them and check their documents. Much sooner, resources will run out to maintain these individuals in temporary detention camps, such as Mucenieki, where it is decided whether they should be sent home or still granted asylum. If some force not very friendly to Latvia and the EU wants to deploy a refugee hybrid war after 15 years, it will achieve a much greater destructive effect with fewer resources.
In terms of practical consequences, what is happening in Europe as a whole certainly does not create a scene of sharp depopulation, but the drop in birth rates in Latvia and Estonia, taking into account our European border status, is a general security threat.
Here, the question of who cares is not even really appropriate, because basically every thinking person sees at least part of the consequences and understands that it will not be good. The contraction of the economy leads to a shrinking tax base, and even the highest-ranking civil servants with the thickest skin should realize that the situation threatens to lead to a reduction in their salaries or even to the loss of their jobs, because soon there will not be enough places for everyone.
Conclusions and solutions
The conclusion section begins with an understanding and that understanding seems to have reached a large part of the thinking public. With that I also want to emphasize that some of them really still sit at home, work remotely, grow overweight and don’t think about tomorrow. Builders, industrialists and other employers have realized that the labor resource is already bad today, but in five years it will be completely tragic, after a decade it may be necessary to close the institution or company because there is no one coming to work.
At the national level, there is a rough understanding of the potential consequences, but it is not clear what to do, because someone else has to make policies and feather-brushing campaigns, while the unthinking part continues to raise taxes. Some still want to punish people as often as possible, others are looking for those who have lost their landmarks in the four walls in order to beat them to the pole of shame, some others hope to ride the horse of general confusion into the management offices of local governments.
The strange tax reforms of the unthinking section further alienate the common man from any socialization. Against the general background, we would like to add that the VAT discount for catering establishments would be the first step, so that two young people could go to a pub or restaurant at least once a month. However, even before visiting a restaurant, there is a problem of a psychological nature. There is a question – do these 30-year-old people who are sitting at home want to break away from the usual computer game in the evening and go out somewhere in society?
Among the employers, I have not met anyone who believes that the problem will be solved in the next few years, and the answer is only one: “We need people!” Some mention Ukraine and Moldova, others – Bulgaria and Romania. Most likely, in the short term, such a solution is acceptable, especially if there is practically no choice.
Two to three years have been lost for those people who should have met, but who didn’t because they got used to being distant from society. The effects will actually be longer if socialization is not restored. But I can’t think of any “anti-pandemic” that could achieve this.
It is impossible to draw conclusions about recovery methods even from countries where the temperament of the peoples is much warmer. For example, in Greece, the birth rate decline is similar to that in Latvia, but in Italy and Spain it is three times lower. There are no answers, no studies and even no parameters for studies that would answer the question of why there are such differences and what has happened differently in one area to have different consequences.
Until the questions are answered, there is only one option left – importing people. It is necessary to clearly understand what our – Latvia’s – rules are, and it is absolutely necessary to abandon the thesis that we only need doctors, IT specialists and high-level consultants in the financial field. In fact, cheap factory workers, bus drivers, agricultural and seasonal workers, construction workers are also needed, so the bar needs to be lowered. A clear scheme of inclusion is necessary – what and how many we are able to admit, train and how it will happen, so that Latvia gets a somewhat full-fledged population for its own good. It is necessary to define a border that we are not going to cross, for example, 200 thousand or 100 thousand people are welcome in this land. And we understand what the profile of these people is.
We need to look for ways not to close schools, roads and cities. The spiral of economic contraction must be ended. The most important thing is to find answers to the question why we have 16.82% fewer children, but only 5.22% fewer in Italy? Italy was initially the country most affected by Covid-19. Who cares?
2024-09-28 20:49:34