2024-01-11 23:10:02
Renewable energies are experiencing real growth. The world installed 50% more renewable energies last year compared to 2022, according to the International Energy Agency (AIE), which anticipates an unprecedented pace in the years to come. But this remains insufficient in the face of climate change.
507 gigawatts (GW) of capacity were put into service in 2023, according to the Renewables 2023 report published this Thursday by the IEA. Three quarters of these new installations took place in the field of photovoltaic solar power.
China was once again the major driver of this growth (+66% of wind turbines over one year). But Europe, the United States and Brazil have also reached unprecedented levels. The IEA also anticipates, for the next five years, the “strongest growth” ever seen in thirty years. “Renewable electricity production capacity has never expanded so rapidly in 30 years, which gives a real chance of achieving the objective that governments set for themselves at COP28 (Editor’s note: the Conference of the Parties on climate) to triple global capacity by 2030,” underlines the IEA.
Photovoltaic prices down in 2023
However, this pace is not yet sufficient, adds the Agency, which highlights in particular the need for financing for emerging and developing countries. “Under market conditions and the state of current policies, global capacity would be multiplied by 2.5 by 2030. This is not yet enough to achieve the tripling objective of COP28. But we are getting closer, and governments have the necessary tools to make up the difference,” summarizes IEA director Fatih Birol.
“Onshore wind and photovoltaics are cheaper today than new fossil fuel power plants almost everywhere, and less expensive than power plants already installed in most countries,” underlines the economist. Last year notably saw the prices of photovoltaic modules fall by almost 50% year-on-year. This movement should continue with the observed rise in manufacturing capacities, notes the agency, created exactly 50 years ago when it was a question of responding to the oil shock.
The situation is more delicate for the wind industry outside China and particularly in Europe, where it is affected by the increase in production costs, interest rates and the length of procedures for obtaining permits.
“An existential threat” to oil, gas and coal
On the side of rich countries and large emerging countries, the IEA underlines the need to put an end to hesitation in national policies, to invest in the modernization and adaptation of networks, to reduce delays and administrative complications. For other countries, access to financing and the establishment of robust regulatory frameworks will be decisive, the report adds. It is also necessary to set targets for the installation of renewables, which are still absent in certain countries.
For Dave Jones, of the Ember think tank, “the level reached in 2023 shows that a tripling is completely achievable”. If we add progress in energy efficiency, “we are progressing more and more not only towards a peak in demand for fossils this decade but towards a drop in the size of their consumption”, he estimates. For him, in 2024, renewables will be “an existential threat” for the oil, gas and coal industry.
“The production of renewable energy is growing rapidly, but not quickly enough,” Dean Cooper also insists, for the WWF, the World Wide Fund for Nature: after COP28, “those who want a livable planet must increase the pressure on their governments to move from words to action and urgently transform energy systems.”
On the other hand, the IEA is dashing hopes of an upcoming massive boom in green hydrogen, estimating that only 7% of announced projects should come into service by 2030, due to a lack of investment and sufficiently sustained demand.
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