Republicans Capitalize on New York’s Migrant Crisis to Gain Political Advantage in 2024

Republicans in New York are looking to make the state’s growing migrant crisis the defining issue of the 2024 midterm elections, much like they successfully did with crime in the 2022 elections. The rapid arrival of over 100,000 asylum seekers in the state has put a strain on government budgets and turned Democrats against each other. Vulnerable Republicans in closely watched districts are using the crisis to portray Democrats as out of touch and incapable of governing. Democrats, determined not to be caught flat-footed, are openly clashing with Republicans and their own party leaders, including President Biden. The issue of immigration has proven to be a potential liability for both parties, with no clear battle lines emerging. While Democrats accuse Republicans of demagogy, Republicans remind voters that Democrats helped stall immigration reform in Washington. New York’s unique right-to-shelter mandate has led to roughly 59,000 asylum seekers being housed each night, and 19,000 migrant children are set to enroll in public schools this fall. Temporary shelters have emerged in various places, leading to protests. Mayor Eric Adams has warned of budget cuts as the cost of caring for migrants rises into the billions of dollars. Democratic leaders are faced with difficult policy responses, forced to choose between backlash from communities outside the city and backlash from the left. Democrats are calling for more help from President Biden, but risk damaging their party’s reputation if they push too hard. A recent poll found that 82 percent of registered voters see the influx as a “serious” problem. Democrats facing competitive races are treading carefully, trying to distance themselves from their party’s views on immigration while still demonstrating an understanding of the issue to voters. Challengers are blaming Republican incumbents for failing to make necessary changes to the immigration system. The effectiveness of these strategies remains to be seen.