2024-09-17 13:58:30
Crisis threatens to get worse
Millions of deaths expected due to antibiotic resistance
Updated on 17.09.2024 – 11:17Reading time: 3 min.
The fact that antibiotics are no longer effective is becoming an increasing problem for humanity. Researchers have now presented a forecast for future developments.
By 2050, more than 39 million people worldwide could die from infections caused by antibiotic-resistant germs, and such pathogens could play at least a role in another 169 million deaths. This is the conclusion of a comprehensive study on antimicrobial agents.
A key reason for the increase in resistance is the excessive and inappropriate use of antibiotics in human and veterinary medicine. Any use can lead to the proliferation of resistant bacteria, as they then have a survival advantage.
Being able to predict future developments is crucial for life-saving countermeasures, said Mohsen Naghavi of the University of Washington, one of the study’s lead authors.
The research team led by Christopher Murray from the University of Washington in Seattle used 520 million data sets to depict the development of antibiotic resistance between 1990 and 2021 in a computer model. On this basis, a forecast for the coming years was then created, which was presented in the journal “The Lancet”.
The researchers’ model also showed a possible positive development: better treatment of severe infections and improved access to antibiotics could prevent 92 million deaths between 2025 and 2050.
Interaction with other causes
It is not easy to determine how big the problem with resistance is: for example, if complications arise during the treatment of cancer due to multi-resistant germs, the cause of death of a patient is usually attributed to cancer. The study authors used hospital discharge data, data on causes of death, resistance profiles of individual drugs, surveys on antibiotic use and numerous other sources to determine the extent of resistance and develop the global model.
From 1990 to 2021, more than one million people worldwide died each year due to antimicrobial resistance. The total number increased slightly, from 1.06 million in 1990 to 1.14 million in 2021. Taking population growth into account, the death rate per 100,000 people fell from 19.8 (1990) to 14.5 (2021).
The Robert Koch Institute estimates that almost 10,000 deaths occur each year in Germany due to multi-resistant pathogens.
However, the development varies greatly by age group: while the number of resistance-related deaths among children under five years of age has been reduced by 50 percent, the number among people aged 70 or more has increased by 80 percent.
With regard to young children, the researchers write: “Much of this reduction is due to a decline in drug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae and pathogens that are usually spread by fecal-oral transmission.” Vaccination campaigns and improved hygiene conditions have contributed to this.
The researchers attribute the increase in cases among older people to the often lower effectiveness or intolerance of vaccines and medicines in older people, as well as more underlying diseases.
Because the population group of those over 64 will grow the most in the coming years, the model predicts that the number of deaths due to resistance could also increase overall by 2050: from 1.14 million (2021) to 1.91 million (2050) per year. According to the model calculation, the number of deaths in which multi-resistant germs play a role could rise from 4.71 million to 8.22 million.
“To prevent this from becoming a deadly reality, we urgently need new strategies to reduce the risk of severe infections, through vaccines, new medicines, improved health care, better access to existing antibiotics and guidance on how to use them most effectively,” said study author Stein Emil Vollset of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.
The antibiotic crisis does not only affect low- and middle-income countries. The USA and Canada were among the five regions in the world where resistance-related deaths increased the most between 1990 and 2021. The other regions are tropical Latin America, West Africa, and South and Southeast Asia.
By 2050, the highest rates of increase are expected in South Asia (including India), Latin America and the Caribbean. “These data should drive investment and targeted action to address the growing challenge of antimicrobial resistance in all regions,” said Samuel Kariuki of the Kenya Medical Research Institute, who was not involved in the study.