Time.news – A new round of negotiations opened this morning in Istanbul between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations on a now shared basis. The non-negotiable points for the Russian side are those recalled by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov. Ukraine must commit to “not to host a foreign army on its soil”. The other point, stopping “assassinations of civilians in the Donbass”. If an agreement were to crown this base, at the origin of the Russian intervention east of the Dnieper, a meeting between Zelensky and Putin would be possible, estimated Lavrov. “Putin was never against a meeting with Zelensky” most “too many disputes have accumulated over the past few years to meet and exchange ideas. It would be counterproductive”. This round of meetings, hosted by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, could travel to Belgrade in future sessions, Lavrov hinted.
Yesterday, the same Lavrov had declared that the European Union, given the liabilities on Kosovo and Ukraine and with regard to the Minsk agreements, cannot be considered as “State guarantor of trust”. It is true that in order to seal agreements that guarantee peace and security in the region, without suspicion, Europe has lost all credibility, both because of the diplomacy of its Member States and that deployed by the Spaniard Josep Borell within the European Commission. Opting for the role of angry hooligan, in favor of one of the parties in conflict, by decontextualizing the difference of the long litigation which precedes it and of which two European nations, France and Germany, had been invested with the role of guarantor, the he EU now occupies a role which is neither that of co-belligerent nor that of arbiter, but which, ultimately, is considered harmful and arsonist by the parties involved. Including Ukraine. Because, despite Zelensky’s dance of the seven veils with NATO and the major parliaments of the Northern Hemisphere, the Ukrainian president knows in his heart of hearts – that assisted by a non-existent regular Ukrainian army and surrounded by Nazi militias in the classic sense of the term which could turn against it at any time – security and peace are too serious matters to be left to what European chancelleries have become.
During the afternoon, President Emmanuel Macron is expected to take the initiative to telephone Putin. A more electoral than diplomatic gesture, if we are to believe the escalation of measures of economic asphyxiation towards Russia, and by way of ricochet of the world, as well as the publicity that it confers on these usually necessarily discreet communications . Apparently, part of the French institutional intelligence does not share the boarding of the Russian file.
If Westerners have deserted the diplomatic scene, they have made up for it with the notion of sanction. During the triple EU/G7/NATO summit, the delegations vibrated to the rhythm of new waves of sanctions. The term is, so to speak, accompanied by a euphoric notion. Even triumph by default. Even when Emmanuel Macron admits that these sanctions will be accompanied by famines. This means that the Western camp not only no longer knows how to arbitrate a conflict on its continent, but it no longer even knows how to think in terms of risk management, or even the cost-benefit ratio.
Faced with an arsenal of economic warfare measures, Russia has, through two of its heavyweights, the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, and the other, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Director of the Security Committee (and ex-president) is arguing for a change of course on how these sanctions would be cashed in. In statements quoted by the Itar-Tass agency, Medvedev deplored that Russian citizens are threatened with confiscation of their property and companies abroad, “just like that”, “excluding any sanction” {note: to hear a sanction within the framework of public international law, which is endorsed by a United Nations resolution or by a judicial decision of a competent jurisdiction). All this has been done since “contempt”, according to Medvedev. “Symmetrical” measures will be adopted by his country, such as the confiscation of property belonging to foreigners or foreign companies based in Russia. He also raised the possibility of nationalization of properties registered with jurisdictions “unfriendly”, this concept now applying to all EU countries. Peskov was not left out, saying the mood in the Kremlin was not “charity” and that the gas would be charged in rubles or not delivered.
Through this battery of sanctions, Europe followed in the wake of the American policy, undertaken at the end of the 1990s, under Georges Bush senior, consisting in forcing the recollectivisation of the Russian economy, pushing it to enter a new phase of autarky. Paradoxically, it is up to the EU to pay for Russian gas in rubles or, if need be, to wait for the infrastructure to be built to receive the LNG carriers of American shale gas, paid at a high price by households and companies
The resolution of a conflict which should have been settled in 2014, now being engaged, remains that Europe has once again missed an opportunity to be taken seriously and to assert its interests, due to the mediocrity of its political staff and European civil servants without legitimacy, behaving like putschists.