It is the thorn in the side of the government. While the examination of the pension reform begins this Thursday, March 2 in the Senate, the question of keeping seniors in employment will be at the heart of the debates. The senatorial right in particular has decided to beef up the text, beyond the senior index with a dedicated CDI and partly exempt from social charges. Because shifting the legal age to 64 is one thing, it is still necessary that future retirees are still active.
A study by Unédic – which has just been published – reveals that at the age of 60 and 61 more than one person in four is inactive or unemployed. Women with few qualifications, low incomes or poor health are particularly overrepresented.
A more difficult return to work
The government is betting: in addition to corporate accountability, the shift in the legal age to 64 will mechanically increase the employment rate of 55-64 year olds, which stands at 56% (compared to 41% in 2010 ). “This was the case with the postponement from 60 to 62 years old,” says Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne. An effect that no one disputes. The unemployment insurance fund also observes a lower unemployment rate for over 55s (6%) than in the other categories and stable since 2017.
The fact remains that the return to work most often concerns the best-integrated seniors, particularly executives and intermediate professions. The study thus points to a more difficult return to work, since 2010, for seniors with an average duration of compensation of 520 days for those over 50, against 340 among 25-49 year olds.
Over-55 compensation spending increased by 38%
What will be the impact of a postponement to 64 on the number of unemployed? In this study, Unédic also analyzes the repercussions of the 2010 pension reform which had shifted the retirement age to 62 by two years. 100,000 additional recipients aged 60 and over, including 65,000 between 60 and 61, were thus registered between 2010 and 2022. An order of magnitude that sheds light on the impact of the next reform.
As for unemployment insurance expenditure devoted to seniors, it has soared since 2010: tripled for 60-61 year olds with more than 1.1 billion euros, and almost doubled for 62-66 year olds (+ 0.6 billion) . In total, compensation expenditure for people over 55 has increased by 38% since 2010, and has risen from 4.8 billion euros in 2010 to 6.7 billion euros in 2022. As for the amount of allowances affected by seniors, monthly unemployment compensation for men is 1,358 euros for those aged 55-61 and 1,749 euros for those over 62. Much lower amounts for women, 900 euros at 55-61 years old and 977 euros at 62 years old and over.
On the estimate of the additional cost for the unemployment insurance scheme, the government ignores in its impact study. Just like Unédic. Only a Dares survey carried out in 2019 estimated the gap from 62 to 64 years at 1.3 billion euros over one year for unemployment insurance. One thing is certain: this will result in a longer duration of unemployment or RSA, alert the unions. They are also calling for the opening of discussions when new rules have just reduced the duration of compensation for seniors by 25%.