The ambitious plan to retrofit Ireland’s housing stock to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions faces significant hurdles, but remains essential, according to the authors of a recent report that sparked debate over its feasibility. Dr. Muireann Lynch and Professor Niall Farrell, economists with the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), appeared before the Oireachtas Committee on Climate Action on Wednesday to clarify their findings and emphasize the critical require for a multi-faceted approach to decarbonizing the residential sector.
Their research, published last week, highlighted that Ireland is falling behind schedule on its retrofit targets and that the anticipated energy savings from completed retrofits haven’t fully materialized. This prompted concern among policymakers and industry stakeholders, but Lynch and Farrell stressed that their intention wasn’t to dismiss retrofitting, but to offer a realistic assessment and suggest complementary strategies. The core of their argument centers on the scale of the challenge and the limitations of relying solely on deep retrofits – comprehensive overhauls of a home’s insulation, heating system, and windows – to achieve national climate goals.
The Scale of the Challenge: Beyond 500,000 Homes
Ireland aims to retrofit 500,000 homes by 2030, a target that, while substantial, represents less than a quarter of the country’s total housing stock. According to data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), there are approximately 2.1 million homes in Ireland as of 2022 . “Even if we retrofit 500,000 houses,” Lynch explained to the committee, “we have about two million homes in the country, so what will the others be doing?” This question underscores the need for broader strategies to address emissions from the remaining housing units.
A particularly pressing issue is the prevalence of kerosene heating, used in roughly 700,000 Irish homes. Lynch pointed out that switching these homes from kerosene to gas, while not a long-term solution, could offer a relatively quick and cost-effective reduction in carbon emissions. Previous ESRI research indicates that 13% of households currently reliant on oil would be willing to switch to gas if connection costs weren’t a barrier.
Bridging the Gap: Short-Term Measures and the Electrification Goal
The ESRI’s report acknowledges the potential for “fossil fuel lock-in” – the risk of becoming dependent on another fossil fuel like gas – but argues that it may be a necessary “bridging measure” if the transition to full electrification doesn’t proceed quickly enough. Full electrification, meaning replacing oil and gas heating systems with heat pumps powered by renewable energy, remains the ultimate goal for a sustainable housing sector. However, the pace of electrification is currently insufficient to meet Ireland’s climate targets.
“Anyone serious about climate action says we need the whole residential sector electrified,” Lynch stated. “All we were trying to say was we are not going to receive there as fast as we need to.” This sentiment reflects a growing recognition that achieving ambitious climate goals requires a pragmatic approach that considers both long-term objectives and short-term realities.
The Data Gap: A Call for Real-World Monitoring
A key challenge identified by Lynch and Farrell is the lack of robust Irish data on the actual energy savings achieved through retrofitting. Currently, much of the data used to assess the effectiveness of retrofits comes from international studies, which may not accurately reflect the specific characteristics of Irish homes and climate conditions.
“We would love to get better granular data about what’s happening in homes pre- and post-retrofit but This proves incredibly difficult,” Professor Farrell explained. He highlighted the need for real-time monitoring of energy usage, including heating patterns, appliance use, and even how often doors and windows are opened. Collecting this data, however, requires installing multiple sensors in homes and obtaining informed consent from residents, a process that can take years to navigate due to privacy concerns.
Naoise Ó Muirí, chairman of the Oireachtas Committee, suggested a potential solution: making the provision of energy usage data a condition of receiving retrofit grants. Lynch indicated that this would be a valuable step forward. She also proposed requiring recipients of electric vehicle grants to provide their Eircode (Ireland’s postcode system) to facilitate future research on the interplay between transportation and energy consumption.
Looking Ahead: Data-Driven Policy and Integrated Strategies
The discussion at the Oireachtas Committee underscores the need for a more data-driven approach to retrofit policy. Improving data collection, coupled with a realistic assessment of the challenges and opportunities, will be crucial for designing effective strategies to decarbonize Ireland’s housing sector. The ESRI’s research highlights the importance of considering a range of solutions, from deep retrofits and electrification to transitional measures like switching from kerosene to gas, to ensure that Ireland meets its climate commitments.
The Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications is expected to publish an update on the National Retrofit Plan in the coming months, outlining progress towards the 2030 targets and any planned adjustments to the program. This update will be a key moment for assessing the effectiveness of current policies and charting a course for a more sustainable future.
What are your thoughts on the challenges facing Ireland’s retrofit program? Share your comments below and let us recognize how you think the country can best achieve its climate goals.
