2024-07-12 02:22:00
The temperature should be above average
According to meteorologist Gytis Valaikas of the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service (LHMT), compared to 1961-1990 in summers, the number of hot days has increased approximately fivefold in recent years.
According to him, this summer is also likely to be hotter than usual. In June alone, the average temperature exceeded the long-term average by 1.7 degrees and reached 17.6 degrees, a similar trend is expected in July.
“Statistically speaking, the summer peak, when the temperature is the highest, is reached in the second half of July and the first half of August. This is when hot days are most likely, heat waves and tropical nights are most likely. We predict that this July will be no exception – it should be warmer and drier than usual, and the average temperature for the month should exceed the long-term average, which is 18.3 degrees, and approach 19. So the heat will not end with June, they are real expect July and August as well”, says G. Valaika.
Price uncertainty is influenced by high air temperature and repair of connections
Rising thermometers have a direct impact on electricity prices. According to the product development manager of Elektrum Lietuva, this is because the demand for electricity increases during hot weather due to the growing need for cooling.
“However, as energy demand increases, electricity generation from renewable sources does not increase. Why? In hot weather, wind production is typically reduced, and solar power plants are also not as efficient as they are in cooler but sunny weather. Therefore, the result is that in order to meet the increased demand for electricity, more expensive energy generators are switched on, which leads to a price jump”, says M. Kavaliauskas.
High air temperature is not the only factor influencing the dynamics of electricity prices. At the moment, the repair work of several power grid connections – “NordBalt” and “EstLink 2” – is also underway, which will continue throughout the summer. According to M. Kavaliauskas, this can contribute to the jump in electricity prices.
“Diagnosed or underpowered connections can exacerbate an already existing problem of peak-hour power shortages caused by declining local power generation.” This is also influenced by producing consumers, who often generate electricity during the day not only for their own needs, thus increasing the supply of energy in the market. However, in the evening, when the production is reduced or stopped altogether, the demand for electricity is greater than the supply, so an electricity deficit is created. “The limited possibilities of importing electricity from other countries due to ongoing repairs of connections will be an important factor that may lead to electricity becoming more expensive in certain hours on the stock exchange in the coming months,” emphasizes the expert.
He adds that in July and August, compared to May and June, lower electricity generation from solar and wind, which are the main sources of energy production in Lithuania, is a common trend.
Why are price spikes relevant?
M. Kavaliauskas points out that the jumps in electricity prices in Nord Pool are relevant and have an impact on electricity bills if the resident has chosen an electricity supply plan linked to the exchange. Those who have chosen a fixed electricity contract are not directly affected by price jumps.
“Once the price of electricity is fixed, no external factors, such as in this case changes in air temperatures, repair works of electric cables, “lay down” in the cost of electricity. All risks for changes in energy prices on the exchange are assumed by the chosen electricity supplier. With a plan linked to the stock exchange price, you need to be more careful and monitor when the price rises and when it falls, and adjust electricity consumption to existing conditions,” explains the head of product development at Elektrum Lietuva.
He adds that it is possible to track electricity prices on the exchange with the help of mobile apps. For example, the “Elektrum” app allows you to monitor prices on the stock exchange, electricity consumption indicators, track hourly and daily consumption habits and see other important information related to electricity consumption.
2024-07-12 02:22:00