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The export restrictions on rice and in particular broken rice, imposed by India at the beginning of September, are being eased. The panic that some feared in the markets has so far been avoided.
When India decided on September 8 to ban exports of broken rice, and to introduce a 20% tax on other varieties – except basmati rice and parboiled rice – buyers were shocked. hot: hard to imagine an alternative to India’s ultra-competitive volumes and prices.
But two months later, the disorder that some feared in the markets has not taken place. No significant price increase was observed. ” There are small tensions, but which have nothing to do with what we expected confirms Patricio Mendez del Villar, economist at the Center for International Cooperation in Agronomic Research for Development (CIRAD) and editor of the Osiriz economic report. The increases noted on arrival are mainly linked to taxes, freight – which is however down – and the rise in the dollar.
► Read also: India bans the export of broken rice
India gives way
If the prices remain reasonable, it is proof that Indian rice is circulating. And in fact, behind the scenes, without publicly retracting, India is backtracking, explains a trader.
New Delhi first agreed to let go of the volumes that had been contracted before September 8. Then the authorities also agreed to lift the 20% tax on contracts also concluded before the announcement of their decision. We also learn that derogations are gradually emerging, with exceptional allocations of exportable quantities to countries in the region, such as Nepal in particular.
« The pressure from Indian importers and exporters was certainly too much », comments the CIRAD expert. Perhaps this is also proof that the measure announced by India was essentially intended to reassure the local market and deter speculators.
« It’s too early to panic »
The announced drop in world harvests for next season, of around 10 million tonnes compared to last year – i.e. 505 million tonnes for 2022/2023 – has not yet impacted prices. If confirmed, this fall will be offset by stocks which are good and which will remain high in 2023 compared to the average for the decade, even if they too fall.
It’s impossible to say what rice prices will look like next year, but in the current environment, ” it’s too early to panic “, insists one of our interlocutors.
► To read also: Rise in the price of rice in India: towards an export ban?