2024-05-02 07:42:33
During the first half of April, the cost of products increased agricultural As the serrano chili which registered a rebound of 31.81%, the tomato that increased 12.14% and the tomato verde that went up 22.97%.
Inflation had a variation of 0.09% compared to the previous fortnight to be at the general annual rate in 4.63%.
Meanwhile, the underlying price index (which calculates the evolution of prices without taking into account the cost of energy or unprocessed food) increased 0.16% at a biweekly rate and 4.39% at an annual rate.
The non-core price index registered a drop of 0.12% every two weeks and an increase of 5.38% at an annual rate. For Jessica Roldán, analyst at the Finamex Brokerage House, Service prices were subject to much uncertainty as the seasonal effects of Easter faded.
“These indicators reinforce our idea that, in its May decision, the Bank of Mexico will keep the rate unchanged,” he commented. Roland.
About, Alejandro Saldana from the bank Bx+ He highlighted that the cost of energy decreased due to lower electricity rates, “since as usual in April, the warm season rate program came into effect in 17 cities in the country.”
“This offset the increase in other energy sources, such as gas LP and gasoline. Also highlighted: April 30 is the deadline to submit the 2023 annual declaration of individuals, recalled the Tax Administration Service (SAT). behavior of services associated with tourism, after the Holy Week holiday”, which this year was celebrated a little earlier than in 2023.
Saldaña estimated that due to the inflationary acceleration and the increases in raw materials in recent weeks, andl Bank of Mexico will have to maintain the target rate at 11% at the next meeting in May.
While Citibanamex projected that non-core inflation will have an upward trend in the following months.
“We estimate that general annual inflation will register moderate fluctuations, but that it will average 4.5% each quarter during this year in line with their long-term average,” said Iván Arias, director of financial analysis at the bank.
As downside risks, he anticipated the estimated effects of the appreciation of the peso and a deeper slowdown in the economic activity, therefore, more or less balanced.
In this context, by the end of 2024 we project that general inflation will reach 4.3%, with underlying inflation at 4.4%.
Alejandro Saldaña highlighted that the dilution of the shocks of past years will contribute less and less to the process of disinflation, The expectation of a lower rate of economic growth for 2024 leads us to estimate that prices will moderate somewhat further.
“However, we warn that the process will not be linear and it is highly probable that inflation will not fall below 4% (upper limit of Banxico’s tolerance range) until 2025.”
He indicated that this is because, on the one hand, within the underlying index, Services will maintain a certain reluctance to go down, mainly due to the transfer of accumulated wage pressures.
This reluctance would worsen if economic activity turns out to be more resilient than expected.
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2024-05-02 07:42:33