2023-05-04 03:03:55
The “premier” Rishi Sunak faces his first test at the polls today with local elections that could shape the end of a conservative era not without controversy. Is about partial elections -The London council is not at stake and neither is voting in Scotland and Wales-. And the speeches deal with municipal affairs. but hopelessly the results will be analyzed as the prelude to what can happen in the next general elections scheduled for 2024, in which, according to the polls, the Labor opposition will become the most voted party, thus ending thirteen years of Tory government. Therefore, although it is true that traditionally the local vote is usually a punishment for the party in power, Sunak is going to have more than difficult to justify the foreseeable defeat. Total, there are more than 8,000 councilors at stake in town halls and municipal councils in England, of which 3,367 are in conservative hands. The loss of 500 seats could be considered a good night for the Toriestaking into account that some polls foresee a indentation of up to 1,000 entries. The appointment is the first examination of Sunak with the electorate in a literal way, since his move to Downing Street last October was due to the primary process. And while it is true that her arrival at Number 10 brought the long-awaited political stability after the turbulent stage of Boris Johnson and the fleeting Liz Truss -if anyone remembers her- the current economic situation is not accompanying. With inflation skyrocketing at more than 10%, the highest in the G-7, and a wave of public sector strikes calling for better pay, including for NHS nurses, already in crisis, the The mood among the electorate is not the best.
The Labor opposition wants to take advantage of the discontent against the Government. However, if the extrapolation of today’s vote to some generals does not allow Keir Starmer’s ranks to exceed 40%, his chances of winning an absolute majority next year will be complicated.
What Labor really aspires to is to repeat the scenario of 1997, in which Tony Blair got a huge absolute majority ending more than a decade of Conservative rule. The problem is that Starmer doesn’t have Blair’s charisma. Nothing is further from reality. The current leader of the opposition is still a gray character.
In the opinion of the expert Sarah Hoboltde la London School of Economics, the cost of living prevails in the interest of citizens over other issues in which the right feels more comfortable, like the speech against the arrival of small boats through the English Channel or Brexit itself. The British exit from the European Union continues to be a fundamental axis in the politics of the United Kingdom, but its effect is beginning to fade. Brexit was precisely the determining factor why Labor lost in the last generals of 2019 key districts in the north of England that they had dominated since World War II. So it will be very symbolic if the Starmer ranks get rrecover confidence now in the so-called Red Wall. These constituencies are key if they aspire to achieve an absolute majority next year.
Today’s participation rate is expected to be low. PFor the first time, the British must present an identification document with photo to be able to deposit the ballot. In a country where there are no identity cards or a mandatory document that certifies that a person is who they say they are – it is estimated that more than 13% do not have a passport – this can keep thousands of people away from the polls, in the opinion of specialists. Despite the fact that a document that allows voting can be expressly requested, it is feared that ethnic minorities and the youngest will choose to stay at home, something that would especially harm the center-left.
Among the criticisms leveled by the Labor Party is the risk of young people being affected disproportionately: according to the Electoral Commission, only two thirds of voters between the ages of 18 and 24 are aware of the new rules. The opposition sees the change as a dark maneuver.
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