Rising tensions in Syria: Arab tribes chase away Kurds along the Euphrates River

2023-09-04 15:42:31

In the period between 1 and 3 September 2023, there was a growing increase in tensions in the Syrian region, with the danger of a possible escalation of the conflict. This crisis has its roots in 2017, when the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) took control of the left bank of the Euphrates following the defeat of ISIS in eastern Syria. However, the presence of Kurdish forces in a territory predominantly inhabited by Arabs has triggered growing tensions.

To try to reduce friction and also to remove the area from the legitimate Syrian government, with the support of the United States, joint Arab-Kurdish administrations were created. However, over time, tensions progressively increased. The Kurds have detained Arab villagers suspected of having links to ISIS, while Al-Khabil, a former ISIS fighter, has used his position in the Deir ez-Zor Military Council to extort resources.

The situation worsened when, in July, fighters from the “Military Council of Deir ez-Zor” were arrested, sparking their leader’s rebellion.

Precisely, on August 27, the Kurds lured the leaders of the opposing Arab faction to a US base and arrested them, accusing them of drug trafficking. This event marked the beginning of the current tensions.

Although the fighting was temporarily halted, the Kurds arrested Al-Khabil on August 27, triggering a new wave of violence with his supporters targeting SDF positions.

Currently, Arab tribes have expelled Kurds from several locations along the Euphrates River, while local people have begun to protest. In the north of the country, pro-Turkish groups are attacking Kurdish positions to prevent them from sending reinforcements to the rebel zone.

However, the chances of success for the rebels are limited, as the SDF is already retaking previously lost locations with the support of the US air force. Even if the SDF were to succeed in fully restoring control of the Trans-Euphrates region, this would not resolve the underlying problems and could generate future guerrilla warfare against the Kurds and their allies.

At the moment, the risk of tribal unrest spreading to areas under the control of the Syrian army remains low, but the difficult socioeconomic situation in Deir ez-Zor province could spark protests. However, the presence of Iranian forces in cities along the Euphrates serves as a deterrent to prevent further unrest.

Nonetheless, residents of other government-controlled provinces may be influenced by Arab tribes in the Trans-Euphrates region to protest and, in some cases, to take more radical measures, especially in situations of extreme crisis and poverty.

Overall, the situation in Syria appears complex and potentially unstable, with the risk of further conflicts and protests in different parts of the country.

(source Ryabar)

Considerations

Both of these adversary groups have historically had friendly relations with the United States. However, it seems that what is happening is mainly linked to financial interests.

Both groups appear to be involved in illicit activities, such as kidnapping for ransom, murder and, of course, drug trafficking, despite both being supported by the United States.

Furthermore, there is an element to consider involving Turkey. The so-called “Arab insurgents” are said to be supported by Turkish government agents. At the same time, the Deir Ezzor Civil Council accused the Syrian government of destabilizing the areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which also include areas of Deir Ez Zor.

Following these tensions, the Kurds of the SDF imposed a curfew in the areas under their control in the province of Deir Ez Zor.