On Thursday, the day after the opposition Combined list (AS) called on Prime Minister Evikas Silina (JV) to replace Defense Minister Andris Spruda (Progressives), Progressives issued a statement that, quote, “any Progressive minister is a matter of coalition stability“. I read this as plain text “fire one of our ministers (in this case Sprude or Bryshken) and we will be out of this government altogether”. Do you agree?
I think undoubtedly. This is understandable – if in such a fragile coalition with such a small majority of votes, only the ministers of one coalition party, albeit the “smaller brothers” of the coalition, are constantly being talked about, then undoubtedly they have something to worry about - it is obvious. It is obvious that the core of the coalition is able to cooperate better New Unity (JV) and ZZS, because it doesn’t look like there are any big disagreements, it’s just a small game of ZZS on its audience, especially from the Minister of Economy Viktors Valaiins. On the other hand, against For progressives this criticism is directed, often justified, but obviously directed at one party, and they, as a coalition player, try to protect themselves – it is logical.
I am interested in the prime minister’s tactics, because what she is doing is literally rolling over the Progressive ministers – transport minister Kaspars Bryshkens Rail Baltica the solution is given a deadline until the adoption of the budget, and the question remains hanging in the air, whether there will be a request for resignation after that, about Spruda in an interview for the magazine And says that the Ministry of Defense was given to him. I’m not saying that it’s unreasonable, but it’s unbalanced if you think about the internal comfort in the coalition.
The logic there, in my opinion, is very simple – we look at the composition of the Saeima, the number of party votes, and what do we get? Well, those Progressives there is such a gray sparrow all over it. With his own idea, but with clearly left-liberal settings, which a large number of people don’t like, including me. On the other hand, those who are currently in the opposition, the National Union (NA) and AS, are still more or less conservative parties, similar to ZZS, which would be very suitable in some kind of future coalition. Therefore, only logically – if the most likely is a conversation about some serious movements of this kind, a coalition could be formed similar to the one that existed in the first government of Krišjānias Kariņas, and most likely, Progressive there would not be there, but there would be either AS or both – AS and NA - together. Then there would be more votes and decisions could be made more safely.
If at all there is a feeling that something needs to be changed in the coalition, this would be a logical direction to look. The fact that the AS really wants to join the coalition, I think, is no secret, and it has been for a long time. Their problem is that they are internally divided and they also have different groups that look at it differently.
For unity there is definitely no need for instability, therefore, if she will have the opportunity to somehow still reasonably continue cooperation with For progressivesI think it will be. On the other hand, the alternative, in my opinion, is only as I described. Such a more center-right, conservative coalition would be much more natural, since all those issues related to human rights – the Istanbul Convention and same-sex couples – have been accepted, therefore Progressive support is no longer very significant and For unity it doesn’t matter who her partners are in economic matters, rather the opposite – those partners who are currently in the opposition would even be more comfortable.
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