Democrat Roy Cooper holds a lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the North Carolina Senate race, according to recent polling. As absentee voting continues and early in-person voting begins, national Republican groups have shifted resources away from the state to focus on other competitive contests. The race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis is shaping up to be one of the most expensive in the 2026 midterms, with candidates campaigning on divergent records and visions for the federal government.
Roy Cooper Leads Michael Whatley in Recent Polls
Sen. Thom Tillis has increasingly tilted in favor of the Democratic nominee. A recent WRAL/WSOC Poll conducted by SurveyUSA shows former Governor Roy Cooper leading former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley by 14 points, with 54% of likely voters supporting Cooper compared to 40% for Whatley. About 5% of voters remain undecided, and 1% are backing other candidates, such as Shannon Bray.
Alternative data confirms Cooper’s advantage. The October Carolina Forward Poll shows Cooper with a double-digit lead, the first time he has reached that threshold in that specific survey. Meanwhile, the Trafalgar Group reported Cooper leading 48.8% to 40.9%. While some analysts suggest the final margin may tighten, the consistency of these leads has led major prognosticators like the Cook Political Report and the Crystal Ball to rate the contest as Lean Democratic.
Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University, noted that while the former governor is a disciplined politician with a long résumé in the state legislature, Attorney General’s office, and governor’s mansion, the double-digit polling gap remains notable. Fourteen is an awful big number; I’d be surprised if that’s where we come in in the end,
he said, adding that the campaign is still ongoing less than a month before the election.
Republicans Reduce National Investment in North Carolina Race
As the election nears, Republicans appear to be recalibrating their national strategy. Fox News political affairs specialist Rémy Numa recently shifted the North Carolina Senate race from “Lean D” to “Likely D,” noting that the state is no longer viewed by national Republicans as a high-value investment. While Whatley’s campaign has attempted to court undecided voters by holding nearly 400 events across the state, from Murphy to Manteo, national super political action committees have pulled away this month to protect Republican majorities in other tight races across the country.
A surge of pre-election registrations has made the Democrats North Carolina's largest party once again. Changes for the week:D: +5,065R: +804L: +22G: +55U: +7,973Click on the link below for more data, including county details. #ncpol
Whatley, who was endorsed by President Trump, has tied his platform closely to the “America First” agenda, emphasizing immigration control and public safety. His spokesperson, DJ Griffin, argued that the campaign remains active in courting voters. However, the President’s own standing may be a factor; polling data from the New York Times suggests the President’s disapproval rating is significant, with some estimates placing it near 60%.
Older Voters Favor Whatley and Prioritize Cost of Living
An AARP poll highlighted the specific concerns of older voters, a group that makes up a large portion of the North Carolina electorate. While Cooper maintains a strong lead with likely voters overall, the demographic breakdown reveals a split. Voters aged 50-64 are more closely contested, and Whatley holds a 12-point lead among voters aged 65 and older. According to AARP North Carolina Director Michael Olender, these voters are primarily focused on the cost of living, specifically rising grocery prices and housing costs, as well as Social Security.
Public safety and crime also remain central themes. Whatley has campaigned on a platform of increasing police funding and keeping dangerous criminals behind bars. Cooper, conversely, is running on his record as governor from 2017 to 2025. The two candidates also differ on trade, with Cooper citing the Supreme Court’s stance that constitutional authority over tariffs resides with Congress, while Whatley prioritizes the Trump agenda.
Senate Contest Costs Could Reach 800 Million Dollars
The 2026 midterm election has seen significant financial activity. Estimates reported by Politico suggest the total cost of the Senate contest could reach between $650 million and $800 million.
Voters are already participating in the process. Absentee voting began on September 4, and the deadline to request an absentee ballot is 5 p.m. on October 20. With voter registration numbers showing an uptick in Democratic enthusiasm, both parties are focused on maximizing base turnout to influence the outcome of this decisive race.
More on Michael Whatley
Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley in WSOC/WRAL poll https://t.co/cfsqeElgtf