The exchange rate of the dollar rose on Thursday, December 30, to the level of 75.1 rubles / $ and is trading 1.5% higher than the close of the previous session, according to the data of the Moscow Exchange at 15:30 Moscow time. The last time the dollar was at a level above 75 rubles. November 26. The euro rate rose to 85.09 rubles. (+ 1.35%), the last time the euro rate was above 85 rubles. also in November.
The Mosbirzhi index is practically not growing, adding to 16:00 Moscow time. 0.8% (3770 points), its dollar analogue RTS declines by 0.21% (1526 points).
There is a long weekend ahead, today a telephone conversation between the presidents of Russia and the United States should also take place at 23:00 Moscow time, says Andrei Kochetkov, leading analyst of the Otkritie Investments global research department: in such conditions, nervousness is growing in the market. If we take into account the low volumes of pre-New Year trading, then any speculative wave generates strong movements, he added. According to Kochetkov, the movements are intensified due to the forced closing of positions (the so-called stop-losses), at which investors relied on the strengthening of the ruble. However, Kochetkov believes that the weakness at the end of the year only means that the potential for a likely strengthening of the ruble in early 2022 will be even higher.
In BCS, the forecast for the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar for the New Year holidays is 73-75 rubles / $, says analyst at BCS World of Investments Denis Buivolov. The increased demand of the population in connection with travel, purchasing activity in foreign online stores can moderately affect the course in the first days of the year, he continued. Buffaloov believes that the peak of consumer demand, according to tradition, fell on the days immediately before January 1. Further, the dollar-ruble pair may return closer to 74 rubles / $, after which the rate may stabilize.
Oil prices, which on Thursday dropped into the red zone, may receive local support after the OPEC + meeting on January 4, even if the current parameters of the deal are extended, investors will welcome the absence of contradictions in the ranks of the largest exporters, the expert said. Buffolov said that at the same time, the ruble continues to hold the negotiations between the Russian Federation and the United States immediately after the holidays.
The goal of the upcoming talks between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden is to reach a compromise “taking into account the principled positions,” said the presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov. The call was initiated by Putin.
According to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Vedomosti, in 2022 the average exchange rate of the national currency against the dollar will be 72 rubles / $ with an average annual price of Brent oil at $ 72.3 per barrel. Analysts’ expectations with respect to the ruble exchange rate have a rather large gap: from 68 to 80 rubles. for $ 1.
With today’s oil prices and the current level of key macro indicators, the ruble is somewhat underestimated and the equilibrium exchange rate of the pair is just below 70 rubles. for $ 1, said the asset manager of MKB Investments Mikhail Poddubsky earlier. The strengthening of the Russian currency, according to him, is constrained by the general moderately negative background in relation to the entire group of currencies of developing countries, sanctions risks and operations to buy foreign currency within the framework of the budget rule. According to VTB Capital, the average annual dollar rate will be 71.5 rubles. for $ 1.
In Raiffeisenbank, Expert RA, FC Otkritie, PRUE. Plekhanov believe that the Russian currency has the potential to strengthen below 70 rubles. for $ 1 in 2022
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