“The idea that Vladimir Putin is instigating a global food war is growing in popularity in the West, writes on his blog Andreï Sizov, director general of the Analytical Center of Agricultural Markets SovEkon, relayed by the Russian economic weekly Expert. It seems to me for the moment very far from reality: the political figures who propagate it apparently have no idea what would happen if the Kremlin decided to implement it”.
Indeed, explains the expert, the share of Russian production in the world wheat balance in the new season is likely to be “unprecedented”: “according to our estimates, it will represent almost 20% of the world wheat trade, which it will simply be impossible to replace if Moscow decides to ban exports”.
Shortages and inflation
For the time being, it is about the Ukrainian wheat blocked by the war provoked by the Kremlin that the world community worries. World Bank experts warned in mid-May of the risks of a food crisis that this deadly conflict could lead to, among other factors: “The war in Ukraine poses additional risks to global food security. Prices will remain high in the medium term, resulting in millions of people facing acute food shortages,” they claimed.
Ukraine, a major exporter of cereals and sunflower oil, is currently cut off from the rest of the world, recalls the Russian daily Kommersant. This situation, coupled with the blocking of many supply chains, is causing a historic rise in food prices. The United States and its allies claim that Russia is using this situation as an instrument of pressure.
“The United States and its allies accuse Russia of intentionally blocking agricultural shipments from Ukraine. Moscow retorts for its part that the food crisis is fueled by the decisions of Western countries and kyiv”writes the title.
Food held hostage
“Food raw materials for millions of Ukrainians and millions of people around the world are literally being held hostage by Russian soldiers”, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at the UN Security Council meeting last week. Due to the war, a large part of the littoral waters of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea is mined, therefore dangerous for navigation, which blocks the export of Ukrainian agricultural products, he explained, before accusing Moscow of intentionally destroying port infrastructure, railways, Ukrainian silos, and of shipping cereals from conquered Ukrainian territories to Russia.
Russia’s permanent representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzia reacted strongly to these accusations: “To hear you, gentlemen, we would simply like to starve the whole earth, while you and the Ukrainians are concerned about the fate of everyone! ”he dropped before listing all the pre-existing and heralding causes of such a global situation, including climate disruption, the global pandemic, the gigantic anti-crisis measures of States, trade wars, speculation stock market, etc.
From February 24, the date of the entry of Russian troops into Ukraine, “more than 10,000 sanctions hit our country”continued the Russian diplomat, leading to the closure of communication channels, a logistical crisis, the closure of ports to Russian ships, problems with freight, insurance, and restrictions on banking operations.
“A silent, but terrible weapon”
As for the little sentence of the Vice-President of the Russian Security Council and former President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev, noted by Blinken, on food products such as “silent, but terrible weapon of Russia”Nebenzia clarified that she was addressing “unfriendly countries” who have introduced sanctions against Russia, and not to those who are threatened with shortages. “The latter are precisely our friends, and as far as they are concerned, we will not suspend our exports”he said, adding that record wheat harvests are expected this year in Russia.
The Russian special representative, on the other hand, asked his Western counterparts where the grain shipments conveyed by rail or barges on the Danube could end up, assuming that kyiv was thus paying Western countries for their arms deliveries.
Kommersant recalls that on May 21, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres offered a kind of exchange: the exit of Ukrainian wheat by alternative sea routes, against the lifting of restrictions on the export of Russian food and fertilizers and Belarusians. These products are not subject to Western sanctions, but their import may be blocked by the measures taken against the Russian financial system. “Anyway, this proposal has so far not had an echo”concludes the title.