After a while, the world is once again in the throes of a war. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is on the verge of war. War could break out at any moment. Once the war starts, it will not just be an issue between the two countries. The whole world would be in danger if the United States, Russia’s enemy, and other major powers, such as China, which sided with Russia, and neighboring European countries, intervened.
There are reports that there are three basic or structural factors that contribute to the current tension between Russia and Ukraine. One, the cultural conflicts and problems of the Slavic world represented by Russia and Ukraine. Second, Ukraine’s growing Western involvement in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, reminiscent of Cold War geopolitics, and third, Russia’s and Ukraine’s advances to other parts of post – Soviet Eurasia. This creates a new uncertainty in global and regional geopolitics. The European Union, for example, is considered part of the Western Alliance, but it is deeply concerned about who it will support. They rely heavily on Russia for energy security, but at the same time are part of NATO. ‘
The current strategic barrier between Russia and Ukraine raises a number of hypothetical questions about what kind of regional order will emerge in this part of Eurasia in the future if the conflict persists. Will Russia win the current conflict against Ukraine, which dominates the geopolitics of the Slavic part of Eurasia? How far can Ukraine handle the support of Western allies in the war against Russia? How mysterious can other external forces, such as the United States, China, and Turkey, make this conflict? Such questions arise in this war-like situation.
These questions will give a broader understanding of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that has existed in Ukraine since the First Color Revolution or the Orange Revolution of 2004. This revolution provided an opportunity for Western nations, especially the United States, to step into post-Soviet Eurasian geopolitics. It was a major setback for Russia, which at the time had been revived as a “major power” under President Vladimir Putin.
The current rift between Russia and Ukraine cannot be seen from a strategic point of view alone. It is intertwined with the historical and indestructible from this soil. The two countries have a common historical past and cultural connection rooted in the common cultural identity of “Kievan-Russ”. The historical elements thus shared with each other shape the present dynamics between these countries in their own way.
As scholars argue about Slavic cultural traditions, there are two major geopolitical traditions that arose from the idea of Kievan Rus. These are “Vladimir-Sussdalian Rus” and “Galician-Volkhinian Rus”. While the former geopolitical traditions gave birth to the modern Russian state, the latter paved the way for the emergence of Ukrainian identity and expanded its sphere of influence to what is now central-western Ukraine. The identity of the “Vladimir-Sussdalian Russ” was confined to present-day Russia and changed its identity during the Mongol occupation, which lasted until the 13th century.
Today’s cultural conflict between these two countries revolves around the idea of Kievan Rus. According to scholarly studies, the name Russia is derived from the river Rus, which flows through Ukraine. In the modern geopolitical sense, Russian historians refer to VO. Kluchevsky and George Vernadsky coined a new term for Russia. It is rooted in its spread in the eastern countries. Here you can see a kind of cultural integration in the expansion of Russia.
What will be the consequences of the current stalemate between Russia and Ukraine?
Western nations are no doubt mobilizing support for Ukraine, but China, Russia’s closest strategic partner, remains strongly supportive of Russia. Turkey is also joining Russia. Russia believes that anti-American Islamic countries such as Iran and Iraq will join Turkey. China has sided with Russia, but has warned Russian policymakers to be careful. Observers say China has a secret goal of exacerbating the Russia-US conflict, thereby diverting the world’s attention from Beijing. China’s primary goal is to keep Russia under its control, rather than as an equal partner. Russian policymakers are concerned about China’s intentions in Russia’s Siberia and the Far East. Therefore, observers also share the warning that Russia must carefully pursue a policy of engagement with China.
China is fueling global terrorism by supporting Islamic religious groups and their patrons, Pakistan, Turkey and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Analysts argue that there is a “China-Wahhabi alliance”. It is in this context that it is argued that Russian policymakers need to understand China’s real intentions.
Russia needs to understand the consequences of launching a war against Ukraine. This will subject Russia to further sanctions from Western countries. This will significantly affect the domestic economy of the country. At the same time, the disputed countries are proposing that the Ukrainian leadership should try to resolve the dispute with Russia through civilized bonnets.
India also needs to intervene itself to actively resolve the dispute between Russia and Ukraine. India has good diplomatic relations with both countries. So India’s intervention may be beneficial. They are also more likely to trust India as there is no bias on either side. But in the current situation, if war breaks out, Pakistan will side with Russia. With this, India may have to stand against Russia under US pressure. If that happens, it will be a heavy blow to India.
What’s happening now?
Thousands of troops sent by Moscow to Belarus are engaged in military exercises in the wake of the intense diplomacy aimed at preventing war between Russia and Ukraine. As part of the plot, vehicles of Russian anti-aircraft missile systems began to land on icy roads.
More NATO troops are moving toward the alliance’s eastern borders, while Britain has deployed 1,000 troops to respond to the possible humanitarian crisis in Eastern Europe if Russia invades neighboring Ukraine and war breaks out.
Russia says it has deployed more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border but has not planned an invasion. This requires assurances from the West that NATO will not allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join the Western military alliance.
Foreign policy advisers from Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine, who met in Paris last month, held another round of talks in Berlin. They have not reported any progress on the implementation of the 2015 peace agreement that helped end the full-scale hostility between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.
U.S. President Joe Biden urges citizens to leave the country
This is not like we are dealing with a terrorist organization. We manage one of the largest armies in the world. This is a very different situation and things can go crazy quickly, he said in an interview with NBC News on Thursday.
Asked if there was any reason to send US troops to Ukraine to rescue Americans, Biden said: “At present there is no such thing. But if the United States and Russia start firing at each other, it will be a world war.
The State Department has been advising Americans in Ukraine to leave the country for weeks. Earlier in the day, the president had instructed U.S. citizens to leave the country within 48 hours as a last resort.
Boris Johnson crosses NATO and Poland
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg have warned that Russia’s military warm-up near Ukraine is the biggest threat to European security in recent times.
I would say that what is the biggest security crisis facing Europe in decades is the most dangerous moment that can happen in the days to come. We need to get rid of it, “said Boris Johnson, chief of The Christian Science Monitor’s NATO headquarters. The British leader said he did not believe Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to take action against Ukraine.
The number of Russian troops is increasing, and the warning time for a possible attack is decreasing. Stoltenberg warned that NATO was not a threat to Russia but that we should be prepared for the worst. Stoltenberg added that he had sent a new letter to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterating NATO’s invitation to talks on improving European security.
The two leaders were visiting British troops stationed near the Polish capital as part of a NATO mission to augment the eastern side of the alliance. Poland borders Belarus, Ukraine and the Kaliningrad region of Russia.
Truss and Lavrov Conversations
British Foreign Secretary List Truss held talks with Lavrov in Moscow, again warning that an attack on Ukraine would have far-reaching consequences and be costly. Truss called on Russia to abandon the Cold War and choose a diplomatic route to avoid bloodshed in Ukraine.
Lavrov refused to accept a speech from Western countries during the first meeting in four years between top British and Russian diplomats. He said that ideological approaches, ultimatums and moralization were the path to nowhere.
Ukraine accepts Turkish mediation offer
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Ukraine had accepted a promise of mediation to reduce tensions with Russia. Our discussions with both sides are continuing in good faith, ”Kausoglu told state broadcaster TRT. The Ukrainian side wants this. The Russian side has not closed the door, but we will continue to be in contact with them.
Without naming any countries, Causoglu also criticized some Western diplomatic efforts, saying they were creating tensions rather than mitigating them. Anxiety and risk persist. But announcing it through megaphone diplomacy is not as helpful as some Western countries do, Causoglu said.
Britain and the U.S. The soldiers are also preparing
Britain has deployed 1,000 troops to deal with any humanitarian crisis in Eastern Europe following the Russian occupation of Ukraine. The UK fears large-scale infiltration could lead to mass migration of people from Ukraine to neighboring countries.
The UK is sending hundreds of troops to Estonia and Poland as part of NATO’s show of strength. Johnson is expected to offer to deploy more RAF jets to southern Europe and to send Royal Navy ships to the eastern Mediterranean.
The US also sends ships to European waters. The navy has not directly linked the deployment of the four destroyers to the Ukraine crisis, but said it would give extra flexibility to the US Sixth Fleet Commander, which includes the Mediterranean, and work with NATO allies.
The four ships are the USS Mitcher, the USS Gonzalez, the USS The Sullivan, and the USS Donald Cook, based in Norfolk, Virginia.
In short, various countries, including the United States, Britain and China, are trying to raise more weapons than mediation efforts. A situation exists that could lead to a third world war. Wars are not the solution to any problem. There will be no gains other than a lot of bloodshed and financial turmoil.