Two years after the start of the large-scale war, the dynamics of Western support for Kiev is losing momentum: new aid allocations decreased in the period between August 2023 and January 2024 compared to the same period the previous year, according to the latest report from the Kiel Institutereleased in February 2024. And this trend could continue, as the US Senate has difficulty approving aid, and the European Union (EU) has had every difficulty in passing a 50 billion aid on February 1, 2024, from the Hungarian bloc. Please note that these two aid packages are not yet taken into account in the latest evaluation carried out by the Kiel Institute, which ends in January 2024.
Data from the German institute shows that the number of donors is decreasing and is concentrated around a core of countries: the United States, Germany, northern and eastern European countries, which promise both high financial aid and advanced armaments. In total, as of February 2022, countries supporting Kiev have committed at least 276 billion euros at a military, financial or humanitarian level.
In absolute terms, the richest countries were the most generous. The United States is by far the largest donor, with over 75 billion euros in aid announced, including 46.3 billion in military aid. European Union countries have announced both bilateral aid (64.86 billion euros) and joint aid from European Union funds (93.25 billion euros), for a total of 158.1 billion euros.
When we relate these contributions to the gross domestic product (GDP) of each donor country, the ranking changes. The United States fell to twentieth place (0.32% of GDP), well behind countries neighboring Ukraine or friendly former Soviet republics. Estonia leads the way in aid to GDP with 3.55%, followed by Denmark (2.41%) and Norway (1.72%). The rest of the top 5 is completed by Lithuania (1.54%) and Latvia (1.15%). The three Baltic states, which all border Russia or its ally Belarus, have been among the most generous donors since the conflict began.
In the percentage of GDP ranking, France is twenty-seventh, having committed to 0.07% of its GDP, immediately behind Greece (0.09%). Aid provided by Paris has been steadily declining since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: France was 24th in April 2023 and 13th in the summer of 2022.
What are the potential consequences of reduced Western aid to Ukraine in the current conflict?
Time.news Editor: Welcome, everyone, to another insightful interview here at Time.news. Today, we have the privilege of speaking with Dr. Elena Marenko, a leading expert on international relations and aid dynamics in conflict zones. Dr. Marenko, thank you for joining us.
Dr. Elena Marenko: Thank you for having me. It’s a pleasure to be here.
Editor: Let’s dive right in. The recent report from the Kiel Institute indicates a concerning trend in Western support for Ukraine. Can you elaborate on what these findings mean for the ongoing conflict?
Dr. Marenko: Certainly. The data indicates that after two years of significant military and financial aid to Ukraine, we are witnessing a decline in new aid allocations. This shift suggests that the momentum which propelled Western support is beginning to wane. The decrease in aid from August 2023 to January 2024 compared to the previous year reflects growing fatigue among donor countries, which could have dire implications for Ukraine as it continues to defend itself.
Editor: Interesting. The report also highlights challenges in the U.S. Senate and the European Union’s struggle to approve substantial aid packages. Why do you think these legislative bodies are encountering these difficulties now?
Dr. Marenko: There are multiple factors at play. In the U.S., domestic politics, including shifting priorities and increasing skepticism around foreign aid, are influencing lawmakers’ willingness to approve additional support. Similarly, in the EU, internal divisions—like those seen with Hungary’s reservations regarding the proposed 50 billion aid package—are complicating unified action. These political challenges could lead to a fragmented response, undermining the collective effort needed to support Ukraine effectively.
Editor: It appears that the donor pool is shrinking and becoming more concentrated. What are the implications of this concentration on Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense?
Dr. Marenko: A concentrated donor pool could lead to potential vulnerabilities for Ukraine. If aid depends heavily on a small number of countries, any shift in their political or economic stance could significantly impact the support Ukraine receives. Moreover, with fewer countries involved, the risk of complacency or reduced urgency in addressing the situation grows, which can directly affect the morale of Ukrainian forces and the overall stability of the region.
Editor: With the trends you’ve discussed, what do you foresee for Western support to Ukraine in the near future?
Dr. Marenko: I foresee two potential scenarios. On one hand, if donor countries can re-establish a unified front and acknowledge the long-term stakes involved, we may see renewed commitment and innovative funding mechanisms. On the other hand, if the current trends persist, we could witness a tapering of support that would not only impact Ukraine’s defense capabilities but also embolden aggressive actions from adversaries. This would create a precarious situation for European security and geopolitical stability.
Editor: It’s certainly a very delicate balance. Compounding this are the social and economic challenges each country faces amidst rising costs and resource allocation. Do you believe that public sentiment about aid for Ukraine is significantly changing?
Dr. Marenko: Yes, public sentiment is a critical factor. As energy prices rise and economic pressures mount, citizens in donor countries are increasingly questioning the sustainability of such aid. While there is still a baseline of support for Ukraine, it may shift towards prioritizing domestic issues, which can influence political decisions on aid. Hence, keeping public engagement high regarding the importance of supporting Ukraine will be essential for sustaining long-term aid.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Marenko, for sharing your expertise and perspective on these pressing issues. It’s vital for our audience to understand not just the facts but the broader implications on international relations and security.
Dr. Marenko: Thank you for having me. It’s crucial that we continue to discuss these developments, as they will shape the future of both Europe and global politics.
Editor: And thank you to our readers for tuning in. Stay informed and engaged as we navigate these important conversations. Until next time!